BETS? Over/Under bets? I think Biden will last until no later than Nov. 11th of 2021, and then step down. (But 6-months is a safe bet — 3-and-a-half- years seems like the number — in political and Christian time at least.) Then his socialist VP takes over the Presidency.
There are 71,000,000 Americans that are our friend’s in arms. Take Heart and as AMERICAN GREATNESS says, “[Trump] should pursue every constitutional and legal means to dispute these funny results and take it all the way to Congress.” BE THE HAPPY WARRIOR.
Also note, President Trump is taking Hillary Clinton’s advice to Biden:
“Joe Biden [insert Trump] should not concede under any circumstances, because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually I do believe he will win if we don’t give an inch, and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is…“
During her interview Sidney dropped several bombs including this: That Democrats manufactured 450,000 votes in battleground states that miraculously ONLY have a vote for Joe Biden.
What I told my boys:
Never before has an election been overturned by the amount of spread between the two candidates.
But, Trump has accomplished many hurdles. So there are many tracks I see happening.
One is [best case scenario] that SCOTUS is going to reject ballots after the 3rd (8pm) of November. The ballots not allowed to be jointly viewed by GOP/DEM “minders” need to be reviewed again, the ballots “cured” while not under view within 6-feet of GOP persons will be fully rejected because of that and that the equal “curing” didn’t happen in other districts for heavy Trump areas. [“Curing” happened in multiple districts in multiple states]. The machines (software) that “glitched” in the district in MI is in 30 states. ALL those ballots need to be hand counted and viewed properly. If this happens, Trump may win….BEST CASE.
WORSE CASE? Trump is a lame duck but uses his last couple months to install an independent council to look into Bidens’s’ dealings. Using his position to show everyone how corrupt the Democrat machine is and the depths of cheating elections, thus, taking away the peoples real power. As he heads into the sunset helping set up a revived GOP machine to help fight the retarded philosophy of the Left’s corruption and depths of depravity in socialism.
Either way our country will still be like this:
Biden supporters vs. Trump supporters:
Biden side screaming angrily and calling Trump supporters fascists while the Trump sides sings the Star spangled banner
When Joe Biden and other Democrats and media outlets say the votes he has received have given him a mandate to fight climate change and systemic racism, he has received no such mandate (LEGAL INSURRECTION). Either transparency needs to happen in the election process or our country will be more divided than ever. (Remember, the Left and Democrat officials has called every Republican Presidential candidate since Goldwater a racist… it has just gotten worse against Trump and Republicans with the New Left).
When Democrats and media outlets say we should unify behind Biden…
How can I unify with these two (Biden and Harris) who called me a racist bigot? Paw-lease.
Before the election the news media predicted Joe Biden would win by 12-15 points and the Republicans would lose 15 to 20 House seats. The GOP won 28 of 29 of the most competitive US House seats. Republicans DID NOT LOSE one single House seat! The Republicans also took control of three more state legislatures.
But Trump lost. LOL. So, where are we?
Lawsuits starts on Monday
50/60 poll watchers, some attorneys, will testify about deprived the right to inspect mail-in’s
300k ballots in Pittsburgh not inspected by R’s
(Similar issues in GA MI NC and other states)
witnesses of back dating mail-ins (USPS and Poll Whistleblowers)
Here is my Sunday Morning Article Dump:
SUNDAY DUMP
EYEWITNESS, WHISTLEBLOWERS OR FILMED EXAMPLES (LEGAL ISSUES)
Ballot Clerks in Wisconsin Allegedly Added Witness Statements To Thousands of Invalid Ballots (RED STATE)
Detroit Ballot Tabulators Entered Names of Non-Voters During Count (BREITBART)
PA-based USPS Whistleblower Richard Hopkins Comes Forward & Agrees to Testify; Whistleblower Testifies Late Ballots Back-Dated for Nov. 3, Election Day; Whistleblower: Other Employees Feel the Same…Contacted Me (PROJECT VERITAS | WASHINGTON TIMES)
Postal Service Inspectors Interview Erie, Pa. USPS ‘Postmark’ Whistleblower; Whistleblower to O’Keefe: ‘I Told Them What I Told You’; Third Post Office Whistleblower: USPS Sorts Late-Ballots to Special Bins For Future Counting (PROJECT VERITAS)
Las Vegas Mailman Agrees To Pass On ‘A Nice Handful’ Of Unclaimed Ballots To Project Veritas Undercover Journalist: ‘If It’s In There—I Didn’t Do It.’ (PROJECT VERITAS)
Eyewitness Says as Many as 20,000 Unverified Absentee Ballots Counted in Detroit Primary (BREITBART)
GOP Poll Watcher Alleges Fraud at Detroit Ballot-Counting Center (BREITBART)
Nevada Whistleblower Says He Witnessed Processing of Illegitimate Votes (BREITBART)
Nevada Whistleblower Says He Was Told To Process Ballots Without Signature Verification (WESTERN JOURAL)
NOT ALLOWED IN
Stunning Video Shows Philadelphia Poll Watchers Observing Vote From Across Room With Binoculars (100% FED-UP | TWITTER VIDEO)
Lisette Tarragano from #Philadelphia: We should all be concerned, we are being constrained (TWITTER VIDEO)
Poll watcher in #Philadelphia: What I saw was disturbing, they did it so we couldn’t observe or challenge it (TWITTER VIDEO)
Poll watcher in #Philadelphia: “We just want a fair election” (TWITTER VIDEO)
This is the kind of intimidation poll challengers at the TCF Center in Detroit were exposed to (TWITTER VIDEO)
Poll Workers Filling In Ballots – Gues What They Are Missing? People from Independent, GOP, and Democrat “minders” Watching for Integrity (TWITTER VIDEO | YOUTUBE VIDEO)
Volunteer Reportedly Busted Handling Ballots Unsupervised in Philadelphia Cafeteria (WESTERN JOURNAL | TWITTER VIDEO)
MORE LEGAL MOVES
Administrative changes in Wisconsin election put tens of thousands of votes in question: From allowing clerks to fix spoiled ballots to permitting voters to escape ID rules, Wisconsin election officials took actions that were not authorized by legislature. (JUST THE NEWS)
Pennsylvania House Speaker seeks ‘full audit’ of election returns before certification: Pennsylvania senate majority leader says it’s too early to tell if the secretary of state’s handling of the rejected mail-in ballots on the county level will have a significant impact on the vote count in the state (JUST THE NEWS)
Lawyers for Nevada GOP cite claims of voter-fraud in criminal referral to Attorney General Barr: Reports of fraudulent voting practice have been ticking up in the western state that has yet to tally all of its votes (JUST THE NEWS)
Pennsylvania orders counties to separate provisional ballots from count while court makes a decision: A Pennsylvania court will determine whether some provisional ballots cast on Election Day should be counted if the voter had originally voted by mail or with an absentee ballot (JUST THE NEWS)
Was the Election Stolen from Trump? He should pursue every constitutional and legal means to dispute these funny results and take it all the way to Congress (AMERICAN GREATNESS)
Ken Starr: Pennsylvania Ballot Extension ‘Constitutional Travesty’ (NEWSMAX)
Confessions of a voter fraud: I was a master at fixing mail-in ballots (NEW YORK POST)
James O’Keefe, the founder and CEO of Project Veritas, said, “Our journalists found spoiled ballots that were supposed to be preserved—but, instead were thrown out with the trash.” (PROJECT VERITAS)
Rate of rejected mail-in ballots almost 30 times lower in Pennsylvania this year than in 2016 (JUST THE NEWS)
Alan Dershowitz to Newsmax TV: Court Challenge Hinges on Numbers (NEWSMAX)
Philly’s long history of corruption includes judge convicted of bribery to cast fraudulent ballots: Just six months ago, a former Philadelphia Judge of Elections was convicted for his role in accepting bribes to cast fraudulent ballots and certifying false voting results during the 2014, 2015, and 2016 primary elections (JUST THE NEWS)
Michigan county flips back to Trump, following repair of voting software glitch: Reliably GOP county had originally swung to Biden (JUST THE NEWS)
Wisconsin Clerks May Have Altered Thousands Of Ballots To Make Them Valid… (WEASEL ZIPPERS)
More Troubling Questions Raised About Election System Used in Contested Races In Swing States (RED STATE)
Quantifying Illegal Votes Cast by Non-Citizens in the Battleground States of the 2020 Presidential Election (JUST FACTS DAILY)
RNC Chair: Detroit Election Worker Blows Whistle On Cheating Operation…”All Election Workers” Were Reportedly Told To Backdate Ballots [VIDEO] (100% FED-UP)
GOP Beware: The Republican Party Did Not Carry 71,000,000+ Votes, President Trump Did… (CONSERVATIVE TREE HOUSE)
VIRGINIA: In Tight Race, Officials Miraculously Find 15,000 Mostly Dem Votes On USB Flash Drive: It’s all so hard to believe, unless you’re a Democrat (NATIONAL FILE)
Mathematical impossibilities may be what trips up Democrat plans (AMERICAN THIINKER)
(Note, I have added items throughout this post) 5:20 am update
Updated 11-3 (AM)
What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less. — Robert Cahaly
CONS
“Biden leads, 52% to 42%, among registered voters in national WSJ/NBC News poll; race in battleground states is narrowing.”…. (“President Trump Trails Joe Biden by 10 Points Nationally in Final Days of Election” — WSJ)
To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a chance at a second term: a 10 percent chance, to be more specific…. (“Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016” — 538)
If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling…. (“Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls” — LEGAL INSURRECTION | THE BLAZE)
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally by 10 points, 52-42. The poll also finds that the race is somewhat tighter in 12 states the pollsters identify as “swing states.” Even so, if these poll numbers reflect the true state of the race, Trump has almost no chance of winning. On the other hand, a new poll by Democracy Institute/Sunday Express has the popular vote split evenly, with Trump nominally ahead by 48-47. In the “swing states” including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump leads 49-45 according to this survey. The Democracy Institute poll is an outlier, for sure. However, it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s 2016 upset victory…. (“Dueling Poll Numbers And Grounds For Optimism” — POWERLINE)
‘This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972’ One of Pennsylvania’s top newspapers has endorsed President Donald Trump over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a major win for Trump in a state that is critical to winning the White House. The endorsement was even more significant because the newspaper has not endorsed a Republican for president in nearly a half-century. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board, one of Pennsylvania’s largest newspapers, revealed late Saturday that Trump is their man…. (“Top Swing-State Newspaper Hasn’t Endorsed Republican In Almost 50 Years — But Is Backing Trump Now” — THE BLAZE)
(Map to the right is by Bruce Carrol… had to throw him in the mix! Click to enlarge)
…Robert Cahaly, a pollster and political consultant who is the founder of the Trafalgar Group, is helping fuel questions with a series of polls showing Mr. Trump running stronger in battleground states than conventional wisdom suggests. “These polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote — what is referred to as the shy Trump voters,” Mr. Cahaly said recently on Fox News. “I definitely think it is going to be a surprise,” he told The Washington Times last week. “I think people just lie to pollsters.”…. (“Trump’S Hidden Vote In Question: ‘I Think People Just Lie To Pollsters'” — WASHINGTON TIMES)
…From Minnesota to New Hampshire, Biden is down. PollWatch, Larry Schweikart, and David Chapman have been some of the people who have been tracking the early vote totals and the overall state of polling, in general, this cycle, cutting through the liberal nonsense. … (“If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes” — TOWNHALL)
…The wonks are partially right: crowd sizes and rallies, caravans and carnival do not necessarily translate to all-important votes. But they are forgetting a few things. For all the intricacy and sophistication an election model may possess, it doesn’t know people. It doesn’t account for history. No model, not in my lifetime, will ever come close to doing so. Consider this: On the admittedly fun swing-state generator at FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden’s odds are around 90 percent. Hand Florida over to President Trump, and Biden is still strongly favored with 69 chances in 100. Yet Florida has picked the winner in every presidential election except one since 1964. Without Ross Perot in 1992, Florida’s record would be unblemished…. (“Trump: Always Be Closing” — AMERICAN GREATNESS)
…In conclusion, Trump is well on his way to gain at least a 10-point increase in Latino and black votes combined. Both groups make up about 32% of the Florida electorate and will likely have the same share of the votes. This means that Trump can afford to lose white votes by 5 points (about 62% of the electorate in 2016) and still carry the Sunshine state. (“Will Trump Win Florida? An Update On The Numbers” — AMERICAN THINKER)
This will be my final post on this… I may update it [see above], but… between this and my other two posts (here and here) — the idea should suffice.
When gallop or other polling outfits call people to find out who they are voting for… they ask a series of questions about past voting habits to determine if they are a likely voter. Questions like:
Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
How often would you say you vote?
In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?
Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
ETC., ETC.
Someone who say “I haven’t voted in 20-years,” or, “I have never voted before,” or comments in the negative for the many questions like those exemplified above (ETC) are not included in the “likely voter.” And so, are not being represented in the stats used often by CNN, NYT, NPR, WaPo, etc.
Other factors is that in some major swing states new registrations for party affiliation — the GOP is outstripping the Dems. (However, this percentage disparity is not being polled for well — more the polls would have to add more Republican respondents to show the Party change.)
[I didn’t explain this well enough when I posted this early this morning. Polls are based on the previous 2-election cycles typically… so they stats are based on an understanding of voter turn out in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. However, this election cycle even now is setting records, and this newer voter and change of Party is part of the mix — which undermines the stats being presented by the MSM.]
…at least 93 million people have already voted – about two-thirds of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election, according to Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who runs the U.S. Elections Project. (USA TODAY)
Why is this import. Some Trump Rallies will help shed some light on this:
The “did not vote in 2016” and the “last four elections” would disqualify them from being included in the likely voter polls. In other words, THIS GUY would not be included in the official polls:
4 more Years.1st time ever to Vote wow that felt great. Now DJT Make America Great Again pic.twitter.com/6tAOscDqfV
Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.
I also think that the Libertarian party not having a “Gary Johnson” again to run against Trump will siphon more votes towards Trump rather than the Libertarian Party this year. Here are some more anecdotal evidences:
…The latest Zogby Poll just shared with Secrets had Trump’s approval at 52%. “The president has recorded his best job approval rating on record,” said pollster Jonathan Zogby.
What’s more, his approval rating among minorities was solid and, in the case of African Americans, shockingly high. Zogby said 36% of blacks approve of the president, as do 37% of Hispanics and 35% of Asians….
[Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s reelected.]
Via 100% FED-UP: During an interview on CNN, Democrat Congresswoman Debbie Dingell conceded that auto workers in Michigan “were very clear with me…they were voting for President Trump.”
It was the biggest political rally no one saw. And gatherings like it have been happening for months in some of the places President Trump needs most to win if he is to be reelected. And, remarkably, the rallies are not the work of the Trump campaign. The road rally in Washington, Pennsylvania, was organized and staged by local Trump supporters, linked together largely by Facebook, who want to show that enthusiasm for the president in western Pennsylvania and surrounding areas is not just strong but stronger than it was when Trump eked out a victory in Pennsylvania in 2016. If Trump wins this critical state, it will owe in significant part to this organic movement and the energetic organizers who have nothing to do with his campaign.
And Biden had his largest rally yet the other day where he addressed 771 people in 365 cars (remember, Biden’s campaign set this up and Biden was there). But a non-Trump rally in Miami drew over 30,000 cars (RIGHT SCOOP). (We had almost 500-cars in my suburb of L.A. grassroots car rally.)
BLACKSPHERE also notes Michael Moore and others recognizing this groundswell of enthusiasm:
…But I’m not the only one who predicted Trump would win in 2016. So did filmmaker and avowed Leftist Michael Moore. And he has predicted another Trump victory, based on trends. Moore recognizes the pro-Trump ferver in the battleground states. Further, he understands that the part of the iceberg under water in 2020 in far larger that that of 2016, as he feels the passion for Trump around the country. Moore knows this, because he actually talks to other former Leftists. And he is not getting the typical Leftists feedback. He described the excitement for Trump as, “off the charts.”…
Here is another example of a lifelong Democrat changing voting patters: “A life-long Democrat who serves on the Flint, Michigan city council has just endorsed President Trump in a great speech…. Maurice Davis, who spoke at a rally held by Mike Pence, said he voted for Hillary Clinton four years ago but this year he is switching to President Trump” (RIGHT SCOOP).
ADDED TODAY @ 10:15pm
(RIGHT SCOOP) Miami-Dade county, which went overwhelmingly for Clinton in 2016, suddenly has Democrats very worried according to CNN:
Fraternal Order of Police Chairman Rob Pride tells CNN that FOP leadership does not tell members who the group will be endorsing, but rather it’s the other way around. And he says the FOP members numbering over over 330,000 voted overwhelmingly to endorse President Trump for this presidential election. (RIGHT SCOOP)
While I know my biases play a large roll in my outlook, one can see how — LIKE IN 2016 — Trump could win. BIGLY.
Also this from GATEWAY PUNDIT confirming some of the above percentages:
Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster at Trafalgar Polling, joined Laura Ingraham on Thursday to discuss the latest battleground polls. Trafalgar Polling correctly predicted Michigan and Wisconsin would go for Donald Trump in 2016. And today he still feels the same way.
[….]
Robert also had this shocking news on Hispanic and Black voters this year.
Robert Cahaly: What we’re seeing with the Hispanics, the blacks and now the youth vote is starting to move. The Hispanic numbers in both states (Michigan and Florida) is 41 for Trump and the African American number in Nevada was 20 and 27 in Florida.
[….]
And also Evangelicals are turning to Trump in larger numbers (79%) than in 2016!
79% of white evangelical likely voters are supporting Trump — which is 9 percentage points higher than his support among this group at a comparable point in the 2016 election cycle, according to PRRI’s American Values Survey from September. https://t.co/NfEwPpgF8V
And, as I noted in a previous post, one of the most reliable voting predictors is the one where people are asked “are they better of than 4-years ago.” Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Two predictions – one by StatesPoll (left), and the other by Kevin McCullough (right) — CLICK TO ENLARGE:
Predicted 10/30
Predicted 10/28
I have to add this for the fun factor… this comes by way of “The Mooch’s” Twitter — he is showing a Biden landslide! Lol. I included Glenn Amurgis “crack pipe” comment:
Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball are predicting an electoral landslide like he did four years ago (NEWSTHUD), click to enlarge:
CLINTON
BIDEN
This is what my WIFE has hope for:
RED STATE contributors all made their own predictions:
Robert A. Hahn, Pundit Emeritus
The secret of the Universe is not 42. It is 37: Donald Trump wins 37 states. Joe Biden wins 37% of the popular vote.
Winner: Donald J. Trump
Electoral Vote Count: 340 to 197
House: Dems
Senate: Reps
Upset: Martha McSally (R-AZ)
Susie Moore, Senior Copy Editor
Winner: Donald J. Trump
Electoral Vote Count: 295 to 243
House: Dems
Senate: Reps
Upset: John James (R-MI)
Scott Hounsell, Polling Nerd
This is my quasi-wishcasting guess. Trump wins MN just so he can brag he did something Reagan couldn’t.
Winner: Donald J. Trump
Electoral Vote Count: 295 -243
House: Dems (Republicans pick up a couple of seats)
Senate: Reps 53-47 (After GA Runoff in January)
Upset: Jason Lewis (R-MN)
Brad Slager – Felonious Work Opportunity Tax Reduction Hire
Winner: President Trump
EV Count: 281 – 257
House: DEMS Retain, GOP makes gains
Senate: GOP
Upset: Candidate – John James, MI / State – Minn. going to Trump
Epilogue – One unforeseen influence apart from the platforms is how many voters are motivated against the media this time around. Less the effect of Trump’s ”Fake News” claims it is more a reaction to the growing hostility coming from the news industry, and seen on social media from journalists.
Dan Spencer, Senior Contributing Editor
Winner: Donald J. Trump
Electoral Vote Count: 300 – 238
House: Dems
Senate: Reps
Upset: Susan Collins (R-ME)
Shipwreckedcrew, Contributor Legal Affairs Pundit
Winner: Donald J. Trump
Electoral Vote Count: 305 — 233
House: GOP (less than 5 seat advantage)
Senate: GOP (+2 net)
Upset: James (MI)
With all of the above, as I noted as well in my previous post, I would like to see the “forsureness” of a friend bumped down a notch. I will leave this and the other clips from Facebook up [even if Trump loses], out of fairness.
I may update if I come across new information, but, for the most part everyone is on the same page. I disagreed with John and Ken on prop 18, that was it.
PROPOSITION 14 – The California Stem Cell Research, TreatmeMs, and Cures Initiative of 2020
NO
PROPOSITION 15 – The California School and Local Communities Funding Act of 2020
NO
PROPOSITION 17 – Voting Rights Restoration for Persons on Parole Amendment
NO
PROPOSITION 18 – Primary Voting for 17-Year-Olds Amendment
JOHN and KEN say YES (here is their reasoning): What’s that line? If an 18 year old is old enough to be drafted , then why can’t he vote ? Or buy liquor? Ah, 17 is close enough . Not all will qualify and most won’t vote anyways.
THE HOWARD JARVIS TAXPAYERS ASSOCIATION says NO to the measure (here is their reasoning): Proposition 18 would change the voting age in California to allow 17-year-olds to vote in primaries and special elections if they will turn 18 by the date of the next general election. While some states allow this, California is different than other states because under Prop. 13 and Prop. 218, tax increases must go on the ballot for voter approval. These proposed tax increases are frequently on primary and special election ballots. Proposition 18 would allow high school students to vote on tax increases. This is unwise. The voting age in California should not be changed. VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION 18.
I SAY NO
PROPOSITION 19 – Property Tax Transfers, Exemptions, and Revenue for Wildfire Agencies and Counties Amendment
NO
PROPOSITION 20 – Criminal Sentencing, Parole, and DNA Collection Initiative
YES
PROPOSITION 21 – Local Rent Control Initiative
NO
PROPOSITION 22 – App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative
Larry Elder recaps 60-minutes discussing Kamala’s leftist ideology. Here is a list of most right to most left… even NEWSWEEK opines, “Democratic California Senator Kamala Harris, was ranked as being more liberal than Democratic Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the congressperson often considered the furthest left within the Democratic caucus.”
Two more hints [excerpts] that should make the optimist about 2020 happy.
….As things stand, Trump has a clear path to victory. But, in my humble opinion, it’s much more likely that Trump wins big than loses — even with “polls” showing Biden up by 15%.
I find that the data shows that Trump is likely keep all his 2016 states and win Minnesota and New Hampshire. Additionally, it is highly likely that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are in play. This could land him 35 states and an overwhelming victory in the popular vote. Here is why:
Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.
Any of these projections coming half-true would guarantee the President a victory. A combination would lead to a landslide.
On the flip side, Democrats that lost in 2016 have struggled to grow their voter base in large part because they focus on marginal groups and those with low turnout.
Democrat support for Antifa and defunding the police has alienated significant portions of key swing demographics like African Americans, Hispanics, union workers, and suburban women. Enthusiasm has been further dampened with the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Securing a 6-3 conservative majority for the next 20 years one week before the election will do that.
What is Joe Biden’s base? He has no base. That is why nobody shows up when he appears in public.
So, the map itself looks favorable for Trump despite what the mainstream media tells you……
The DAILY WIRE has an interesting post suggesting another “shotcaller” in 2016 that was one of the few that predicted Trump’s win. Here is a portion of that article:
….Most presidential pollsters blew the call in 2016.
But Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly got it mostly right. His group’s polling in 2016 showed Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of the election. Trump won all three, despite most polls saying he would lose the states.
Now, Cahaly says Trump is poised to do it again and will top the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win re-election.
“I see the president winning with a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said on Fox News.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what [we] refer to as the shy Trump voter,” he said. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment. And so, these people are more hesitant to … participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not trying to give them a poll that they can participate in … you’re not going to get honest answers.”
His hypothesis is supported by polls. A survey in July by Monmouth University of 401 Pennsylvania voters found that a majority of voters think there are Trump supporters out there who aren’t being counted.
“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
“Most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%),” the pollsters wrote.
The Trafalgar group’s poll of 1,051 likely voters from Oct. 14-16 shows Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin by just over 1 percentage point, 47.5% to 46.3%. Other Trafalgar group polls show Trump ahead of Biden by 1 percentage point in Michigan, 2 points in Florida, and 4 points in both Arizona and Ohio, according to October surveys.…
I would hope to throw a little love in the faces of a FB rival’s confidence…
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said Thursday he would aim to end the oil industry by transitioning completely to renewable energy….
GREEN NEW DEAL UPDATE:
For more, read the portion on “Solar” and “Batteries,” HERE.
...Even GOOGLE Caves!
“Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear. All these things are made using mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings, which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables farms – and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the human race.”
I must say I’m personally surprised at the conclusion of this study. I genuinely thought that we were maybe a few solar innovations and battery technology breakthroughs away from truly viable solar power. But if this study is to be believed, solar and other renewables will never in the foreseeable future deliver meaningful amounts of energy.
➤ Solar panels create 300 times more toxic waste per unit of energy than do nuclear power plants. ➤ If solar and nuclear produce the same amount of electricity over the next 25 years that nuclear produced in 2016, and the wastes are stacked on football fields, the nuclear waste would reach the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa (52 meters), while the solar waste would reach the height of two Mt. Everests (16 km). ➤ In countries like China, India, and Ghana, communities living near e-waste dumps often burn the waste in order to salvage the valuable copper wires for resale. Since this process requires burning off the plastic, the resulting smoke contains toxic fumes that are carcinogenic and teratogenic (birth defect-causing) when inhaled.
UPDATED STAT:
Also, solar panels lose their capacity to transform sunlight into electrons in the course of an estimated 30 years of use. What to do with the expired sheets of glass and metal that no longer generate power? According to the Department of Energy, the cost of recycling runs up to $45 per panel, which is far more than the $5 cost of disposal. That means most are destined for a landfill.
The consequence is a heap of trash that the International Renewable Energy Agency estimates could weigh in at 77 million tons by 2050 — yet another environmental blight. With next-generation panels providing greater efficiency at lower cost, the option of replacing aging panels with new ones could result in 50 times as much waste, according to a 2021 Harvard Business Review study. Oops.
President Biden’s solar plan could leave Americans — environmentalist or not — questioning whether shrouds of reflective glass and mountains of shiny rubbish is the future they want for the great American West.
So diesel hybrids are the ideal for those concerned about the environment. But the rare-earth metals and substances used to make the batteries and magnets are in much less supply than coal, oil, and the like. In fact, in the 70’s it was predicted that we would be running dry of oil this year, but in fact we have at least 200-years worth of supply, the highest ever in the history of man (see point #3). To be clear, the impact on land and energy to get these materials is worse than normal automotive choices:
This section is a response of sorts to Dr. Lomborg, who is interviewed in the opening video. And it is very simple, alternative energy sources create more pollution than they will save (carbon footprint wise).
Thousands of Britain’s wind turbines will create more greenhouse gases than they save, according to potentially devastating scientific research to be published later this year.
The finding, which threatens the entire rationale of the onshore wind farm industry, will be made by Scottish government-funded researchers who devised the standard method used by developers to calculate “carbon payback time” for wind farms on peat soils.
Wind farms are typically built on upland sites, where peat soil is common. In Scotland alone, two thirds of all planned onshore wind development is on peatland. England and Wales also have large numbers of current or proposed peatland wind farms.
But peat is also a massive store of carbon, described as Europe’s equivalent of the tropical rainforest. Peat bogs contain and absorb carbon in the same way as trees and plants — but in much higher quantities.
British peatland stores at least 3.2 billion tons of carbon, making it by far the country’s most important carbon sink and among the most important in the world.
Wind farms, and the miles of new roads and tracks needed to service them, damage or destroy the peat and cause significant loss of carbon to the atmosphere, where it contributes to climate change.
[….]
“This is just another way in which wind power is a scam. It couldn’t exist without subsidy. It is driving industry out of Britain and driving people into fuel poverty.”…
Wind power cannot meet demands, and are dependent on weather conditions, as the above graph shows. Here is a snippit of the issue at hand with Germany’s electric grid:
You can see the extreme volatility of wind power. Such volatility plays havoc with the electric grid and makes fossil fuel backup generation more expensive to run because it must constantly change production rate; it cannot be run efficiently. Those constant changes cause production of more emissions than would be produced without having to contend with the quirky wind power contribution.
Gosselin (a US citizen living in Germany, who received a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering at the University of Arizona) notes that “Resistance to wind power in Germany is snowballing.” “The turbines, which the German government says will become the ‘workhorse’ of the German power industry, ran at over 50% of their rated capacity only for 461 hours [out of a possible 8,766], or just 5.2% of the time.”
In addition to the unreliable power produced by allegedly “green” wind power, it is becoming increasingly obvious that wind generation is taking a large toll on wildlife and has deleterious effects on human health.
[….]
“The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and American Bird Conservancy say wind turbines kill 440,000 bald and golden eagles, hawks, falcons, owls, cranes, egrets, geese and other birds every year in the United States, along with countless insect-eating bats. Wind turbines killed 600000 bats last year.
“A fundamental principle of information theory is that you can’t guarantee outcomes… in order for an experiment to yield knowledge, it has to be able to fail. If you have guaranteed experiments, you have zero knowledge” ~ George Gilder
Interview by Dennis Prager {Editors note: this is how the USSR ended up with warehouses FULL of “widgets” (things made that it could not use or people did not want) no one needed in the real world. This economic law enforcers George Gilder’s contention that when government supports a venture from failing, no information is gained in knowing if the program actually works. Only the free-market can do this. [See my post on Capitalism.]}
(The videos made by this REAL environmental group used below can be found HERE)
What follows is a roughly 4-minute video which shows how Germany has transformed a large part of its once idyllic landscape into an industrial wasteland littered by wind turbines – all in the name of environmentalism.
And it warns that if wind energy movement continues in Germany, the entire country will look like the images shown.
The video starts by showing the earlier beauty of the German landscape, which once had inspired a number of fairy tales. Next the video shows what happened once a group of “green” industrialists and totally misguided “environmentalists” got their way and plastered the country with some 30,000 turbines.
[….]
If Germany wishes to provide a large share of it’s primary energy through wind power, then some 10 times the number of turbines will need to be installed.
The video ends with the message:
The windfarms with the new 200-meter wind turbines and their intrusion into to the landscape, poor economy, social structure and ignoring the completely random power generation – unthinkable!
In Europe if everyone wanted to have their say and decide, it would be necessary to conduct and discuss years long environmental and social compatibility studies, and have to comply with the laws governing water and species protection as well as to regulate compensation for damages arising from real estate value losses etc.
Wind turbine plantations of the magnitude found in Brandenburg, Lower Saxony, Schleswig Holstein and Vogelsberg can only be implemented by an authoritarian political system that is characterized by a high degree of corruption, contempt for human rights and protection of nature.”
….But on huge wind farms the motion of the turbines mixes the air higher in the atmosphere that is warmer, pushing up the overall temperature.
Satellite data over a large area in Texas, that is now covered by four of the world’s largest wind farms, found that over a decade the local temperature went up by almost 1C as more turbines are built.
This could have long term effects on wildlife living in the immediate areas of larger wind farms.
It could also affect regional weather patterns as warmer areas affect the formation of cloud and even wind speeds.
It is reported China is now erecting 36 wind turbines every day and Texas is the largest producer of wind power in the US.
Liming Zhou, Research Associate Professor at the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at the University of New York, who led the study, said further research is needed into the affect of the new technology on the wider environment.
“Wind energy is among the world’s fastest growing sources of energy. The US wind industry has experienced a remarkably rapid expansion of capacity in recent years,” he said. “While converting wind’s kinetic energy into electricity, wind turbines modify surface-atmosphere exchanges and transfer of energy, momentum, mass and moisture within the atmosphere. These changes, if spatially large enough, might have noticeable impacts on local to regional weather and climate.”
The study, published in Nature, found a “significant warming trend” of up to 0.72C (1.37F) per decade, particularly at night-time, over wind farms relative to near-by non-wind-farm regions.
The team studied satellite data showing land surface temperature in west-central Texas….
….According to Prinn and Wang, this temperature increase occurs because the wind turbines affect two processes that play critical roles in determining surface temperature and atmospheric circulation: vertical turbulent motion and horizontal heat transport. Both processes are responsible for moving heat away from Earth’s surface.
In the analysis, the wind turbines on land reduced wind speed, particularly on the downwind side of the wind farms, which reduced the strength of the turbulent motion and horizontal heat transport processes. This resulted in less heat being transported to the upper parts of the atmosphere, as well as to other regions farther away from the wind farms….
Not only do wind farms kill off high-profile bird species like golden and bald eagles and California condors, the farms also cause global warming. After hundreds of millions in blown taxpayer money and thousands of dead birds the latest research shows that wind farms cause warming. Reuters reported, via Free Republic:
Large wind farms might have a warming effect on the local climate, research in the United States showed on Sunday, casting a shadow over the long-term sustainability of wind power…
…The world’s wind farms last year had the capacity to produce 238 gigawatt of electricity at any one time. That was a 21 percent rise on 2010 and capacity is expected to reach nearly 500 gigawatt by the end of 2016 as more, and bigger, farms spring up, according to the Global Wind Energy Council.
Researchers at the State University of New York at Albany analysed the satellite data of areas around large wind farms in Texas, where four of the world’s largest farms are located, over the period 2003 to 2011.
The results, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, showed a warming trend of up to 0.72 degrees Celsius per decade in areas over the farms, compared with nearby regions without the farms.
“We attribute this warming primarily to wind farms,” the study said. The temperature change could be due to the effects of the energy expelled by farms and the movement and turbulence generated by turbine rotors, it said.
“These changes, if spatially large enough, may have noticeable impacts on local to regional weather and climate,” the authors said.
But the Democrats will continue to dump billions into the costly energy source anyway. It makes them feel good.
Can you imagine the polluted, destroyed world we would have if the left had their way with green energy?
Environazis, like all progressives, care about two things: other people’s money and the power entailed in imposing their ideology. Prominent among the many things they do not care about is the environment, as demonstrated by a monstrosity planned for Loch Ness:
A giant 67 turbine wind farm planned for the mountains overlooking Loch Ness will be an environmental disaster thanks to the sheer quantity of stone which will need to be quarried to construct it, according to the John Muir Trust. In addition, the Trust has warned that the turbines spell ecological disaster for the wet blanket peat-land which covers the area and acts as a huge carbon sink, the Sunday Times has reported.
According to global warming dogma, carbon sinks are crucial in preventing human activity from causing climatic doom.
The planet isn’t the only victim of this ideologically driven enterprise:
Around one million people visit the picturesque Loch Ness, nestled in the highlands of Scotland each year, bringing about £25 million in revenue with them. Most are on the lookout for the infamous monster, but if Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE) get their way the tourists will have something else to look at: the Stronelairg wind farm – 67 turbines, each 443ft high, peppered across the Monadhlaith mountains overlooking the Loch.
Is “green” energy, particularly wind and solar energy, the solution to our climate and energy problems? Or should we be relying on things like natural gas, nuclear energy, and even coal for our energy needs and environmental obligations? Alex Epstein of the Center for Industrial Progress explains.
NEW INFORMATION on the low frequency noise made by wind farms shows a direct connection to the health of ones heart.
Interviewed in Allgemeine-Zeitung, Vahl said that the Low Frequency Noise generated by wind turbines can weaken the heart muscle and change the blood flow.
Prof. Wahl became interested in infrasound and its impact on health after a friend who lived near a wind park had complained of feeling continuously sick. It is known that all around the world people living near wind parks often experience health issues – some being severe.
The group led by Prof. Vahl conducted an experiment to find out if infrasound has an effect on heart muscle strength. Under the measurement conditions, the force developed by isolated heart muscle was up to 20 percent less.
The strength of the heart muscle is important in the event the aortic valve becomes caked up and thus more narrow. According to Dr. Vahl: “This changes the blood flow and the flow noise.”
Now researchers are discussing whether these changes can pose an additional risk to the function of the heart, the Allgemeine Zeitung reported.
Citing the results, Prof. Vahl said: “The fundamental question of whether infrasound can affect the heart muscle has been answered.”
The researchers conclude: “We are at the very beginning, but we can imagine that long-term impact of infrasound causes health problems. The silent noise of infrasound acts like a heart jammer.”
There has long been anecdotal evidence that wind turbines are injurious to human health. I first heard these stories myself on a visit to Australia in 2012 when I met several people who had experienced serious health problems from the effects of wind turbine infrasound – and had been forced to abandon their homes. Subsequently, I also spoke to people in the UK who were also victims of Wind Turbine Syndrome.
You can read the first report I wrote on the subject here.
The wind industry is a massive class action suit waiting to happen. [Especially now that the World Health Organisation has confirmed the health risks – which, of course, just like Big Tobacco, Big Wind has been covering up for years] Indeed, of all the scandals to emerge from the great global warming scam, the wind industry is in my view the worst….
Solar
Low-Tech Magazine notes that new “research shows, albeit unintentional, that generating electricity with solar panels can also be a very bad idea. In some cases, producing electricity by solar panels releases more greenhouse gases than producing electricity by gas or even coal.” Continuing, they point out that…
Producing electricity from solar cells reduces air pollutants and greenhouse gases by about 90 percent in comparison to using conventional fossil fuel technologies, claims a study called “Emissions from Photovoltaic Life Cycles”, to be published this month in “Environmental Science & Technology”. Good news, it seems, until one reads the report itself. The researchers come up with a solid set of figures. However, they interpret them in a rather optimistic way. Some recalculations (skip this article if you get annoyed by numbers) produce striking conclusions.
Solar panels don’t come falling out of the sky – they have to be manufactured. Similar to computer chips, this is a dirty and energy-intensive process. First, raw materials have to be mined: quartz sand for silicon cells, metal ore for thin film cells. Next, these materials have to be treated, following different steps (in the case of silicon cells these are purification, crystallization and wafering). Finally, these upgraded materials have to be manufactured into solar cells, and assembled into modules. All these processes produce air pollution and heavy metal emissions, and they consume energy – which brings about more air pollution, heavy metal emissions and also greenhouse gases.
So an electrical grid powered by alternative fuels or “renewable energy is really a pipe-dream. Take the projections of that giant bird killing plant on the California-Nevada border:
….A solar power plant in the Mojave Desert that’s attracted negative attention for its injuries to birds is producing a whole lot less power than it’s supposed to, according to Energy Department figures.
According to stats from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a number-crunching branch of the U.S. Department of Energy, the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System in San Bernardino County has produced only about a quarter of the power it’s supposed to, with both less than optimal weather and apparent mechanical issues contributing to the shortfall.
[….]
As Danko points out, Ivanpah’s owners have recently sought extensions on the repayment schedule for the $1.6 billion in government-backed loans that paid for Ivanpah’s construction, hoping to delay writing checks until the firms can secure a government grant they hope to use to pay down the loan… .
And this on Solar power: “when you factor in all the sources of energy consumed in this country, captured solar power amounts to well less than 1 quadrillion Btu out of an annual total of 96.5 quadrillion.” Continuing with FORBES:
The biggest sources are the old standbys. Oil still reigns supreme at 36 quadrillion Btu, natural gas at 26 quads, nuclear 8. Hydropower and biomass bring up the rear at 2.6 and 2.7 quads. Wind is just 1.5 quads. And coal — the great carbon-belching demon of the global energy mix — its contribution is 19 quads. That’s nearly 8 times all the nation’s wind and solar generation combined.
On my TV show this week, statistician Bjorn Lomborg points out that “air pollution kills 4.3 million people each year … We need to get a sense of priority.” That deadly air pollution happens because, to keep warm, poor people burn dung in their huts.
Yet, time and again, environmentalists oppose the energy production most likely to make the world cleaner and safer. Instead, they persuade politicians to spend billions of your dollars on symbolism like “renewable” energy.
“The amazing number that most people haven’t heard is, if you take all the solar panels and all the wind turbines in the world,” says Lomborg, “they have (eliminated) less CO2 than what U.S. fracking (cracking rocks below ground to extract oil and natural gas) managed to do.”
That progress occurred despite opposition from environmentalists — and even bans in places like my stupid state, New York, where activists worry fracking will cause earthquakes or poison the water….
I am starting out with wetting your whistle with some audio by Larry Elder (0.00 to the 8:18 mark) showing the difference between how MSNBC and others are reporting the Hunter Biden lap-top story vs. other European based news channels. Some are even saying it is a new “Russian Conspiracy.”
[….]
Which brings me to the following days show by Armstrong and Getty (from the 8:18 mark till the end) , who talk about the same characters involved in the “Russia Hoax” that enraptured the Left and #NeverTrumpers for over two years. They signed a letter saying this is a Russian Undercover Intel Attack (rough synopsis). A friend on Facebook linked to a POLITICO story regarding these 50[+] intel persons signing a letter: “Hunter Biden story is Russian disinfo, dozens of former intel officials say.”
However, 2-days ago Fox news confirmed with the DNI (Director of National Intelligence) that this laptop in no way is Russian Intel. Yesterday, CBS confirmed via their contacts at the FBI AND DOJ that the fox report is correct. Fox News contacted someone in the “cc” portion of the email discussing the “Big Guy” and who that was… the person involved as a person in the email chain said that was Joe Biden. AND, there are signatures from Hunter dropping it off.
Here is how I responded to my friend:
It shows that without a shred of evidence intel ppl are biased … inflicted with TDS. The DNI said there was no Russian disinformation program (Fox, yesterday). Then CBS confirmed through their sources that both the DOJ and the FBI confirmed that this is true.
The FBI has had the computer since December.
Maybe, the Russians trained a dopey back woods computer repair guy as a mole/sleeper agent for just such a moment, when, a VP’s son would drop off water damaged computers and SIGN for them to be serviced.
I really have no respect for people that use this as a means to dislike Trump, but not other politicians.
LET ME EXPLAIN.
1st)All politicians are narcissists in some respect. Especially the President — They say, “out of 330-million people I am the only one fit to lead the nation well.” (Or whatever number of people for that President, for instance – in 1957 there were 171-million people in these United States when 116,000 people died of a virus).
2nd)If you compare the previous President, his use of the “first person pronoun[s]” was immeasurable:
So, yes. Donald Trump is a narcissist. But he is not the first narcissist to sit in the Oval Office. In fact, the man he replaced was perhaps even more so…although he kept it cloaked in a veil of cool and protected by a Praetorian Guard media. To illustrate the point, here’s some contrasting analysis. You can draw your own conclusions. Let’s compare their two re-election bid convention speeches. Obama’s in 2012 vs. Trump’s just last week. If one does a deep dive into the transcripts some interesting and revealing findings emerge. Here is some data. Obama’s 2012 acceptance speech ran around 4,600 words, whereas Trump’s was longer at roughly 6,700. What is interesting is the number of times the first person singular, each President’s references to himself, was used. For example, even though Trump’s speech had 2,100 more words in the text, Obama used the word “I” 59 times, compared to Trump’s 46 times. And he used the word “me” nine times compared to Trump’s three. So Trump’s speech was 45 percent longer, yet it was Obama who seemed enamored with himself, deploying the first-person singular 68 times to Trump’s 49. I omit the word “my” as both men used this word in the context of “my wife,” “my children,” “my grandfather,” “my brother,” so that may be forgiven. But the prevalence of “I” and “me” is telling…..
3rd)Joe Biden was given the Ukraine and China to handle via Obama. And he took Hunter along with him to set up “side-deals” to launder money for him through “pay-for-play” criminal activity. Hunter had a semblance of a normal life, but was soon kicked out of the military, divorced, had an affair and a kid with his brothers’ widow, had another kid with another woman. Was criminally involved with the ruthless Chinese government who probably fed him sex and drug filled escapades with underage girls and crack.
WHAT FATHER WOULD PUT A SON INTO A SITUATION LIKE THIS?
One who thinks so highly of himself that no matter the means he will enrich himself.
A Narcissist.
A Criminal Narcissist.
In a previous post I noted this – as a way to compare where rhetoric meets reality… “my Narcissist” is waay more trustworthy [than your Narcissist]:
So… when Trump’s taxes were released (hacked? Um… hello Twitter? [/sarcasm] they showed he was, in fact, under audit; and, that no payments from Russian oligarchs or banks happened. HOWEVER, we found out that Hunter Biden, in fact, received 3.5 million dollars from the wife of the ex-mayor of Moscow [Elena Baturina] … now we know why. Hunter Biden had ZERO [influence] to do with what was being asked. [But guess who did have influence to affect – politically – what was being asked for?]
WHO DID receive payments from Russian oligarchs ?
Joe Biden. That’s who.
It is comical, in an ultimate issue sort-of-way, that almost everything the Democrats say Trump has done — the Democrats have ACTUALLYdone.
Like I said, the hits keep coming. I feel bad for the people that voted weeks ago.
Oh well. Your loss that you have voted for everything you hate about Trump.
I just wanted to share a couple posts about polls, the first is via POWERLINE:
It is an odd election season. Pretty much everyone thinks the Democrats are on their way to a crushing victory, yet it is hard to see why. A whopping 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago, and President Trump draws large, enthusiastic crowds wherever he goes. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is a pale shell of his formerly buffoonish self. When Joe is able to get out of bed, his campaign schedules intimate invitation-only events. Supposedly this is because of COVID, but everyone knows it is really because he doesn’t want to be embarrassed by his inability to draw a crowd. Probably no one outside of Biden’s immediate family particularly wants him to be president.
So what is going on? One possibility is that the conventional wisdom is wrong. At TOWNHALL, Kevin McCullough, who has a pretty good record as an election forecaster, argues that we should believe our lying eyes:
To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.
The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”
[….]
We can dream. Finally, here is McCullough’s predicted electoral map (the first graphic is his most updated prediction):
Not to pour cold water on a much-needed bit of optimism, but McCullough has Minnesota going for Trump. But it has been reported here that the Trump campaign has pulled all of its remaining television ads from Minnesota stations.
Mainstream media have been trumpeting a lot of the polls being for Joe Biden.
We’ve pointed out the problems of some of those polls and how there are the other polls, like the Democracy Institute poll, that find President Donald Trump ahead because they’re measuring likely voters not registered voters and they aren’t oversampling Democrats. Most are also not measuring things like the shy Trump voter or that the youth vote is again unlikely to come out in greater numbers.
But what’s missing in a lot of the discourse is that the measures apart from MSM national polls by which you judge whether a president will be reelected are all for Trump.
First there’s no indication of a youth voter surge, that’s bad for the Democrats who poll much higher with the young than other age groups.
Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s reelected.
Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. A reporter asked Joe Biden about that, he got snippy and said that if people thought that they didn’t have to vote for him and that their memories were somehow wrong.
% of Americans who say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago
The important thing to note? How high that number is for Trump and that all the prior president in 2012, 2004, 1992, 1984 who even had lower numbers were reelected.
[….]
David Chapman did a great Twitter thread of some of the other historical measures.
“[N]o incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”
Oh, and it gets better.
“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,”
This tallies with the Helmut Norpoth prediction model that cites the importance of the primary numbers and also predicts a Trump win. People came out in droves for Trump in the primary when they didn’t even have to.
Want more? There’s more.
Every candidate who has led in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won. Trump not only leads in voter enthusiasm, he leads by a lot, a 19 point enthusiasm gap….
Larry Elder goes through the most recent “pro-Biden Screed” by Michelle Obama. Larry Elder lays out a negative and positive case for Trump… but even with Trump’s negatives, he is far better than Biden [now] and Hillary [previously]. Let me say also, while I can tell when Prager gets mad about a subject… people show anger in differing ways. I believe this is about the most upset that I have heard Larry on a topic. It may not sound like it — but I have been listening to the many for YEARS.
