Last Post On Reason’s Trump Can Win (BIGLY!) |UPDATED 11-3|

(Note, I have added items throughout this post)
5:20 am update

Updated  11-3 (AM)

What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less. — Robert Cahaly


  • “Biden leads, 52% to 42%, among registered voters in national WSJ/NBC News poll; race in battleground states is narrowing.”…. (“President Trump Trails Joe Biden by 10 Points Nationally in Final Days of Election” — WSJ)
  • To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a chance at a second term: a 10 percent chance, to be more specific…. (“Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016” — 538)
  • Some WASHINGTON POST maps and scenarios.


  • If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling…. (“Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls” — LEGAL INSURRECTION | THE BLAZE)
  • A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally by 10 points, 52-42. The poll also finds that the race is somewhat tighter in 12 states the pollsters identify as “swing states.” Even so, if these poll numbers reflect the true state of the race, Trump has almost no chance of winning. On the other hand, a new poll by Democracy Institute/Sunday Express has the popular vote split evenly, with Trump nominally ahead by 48-47. In the “swing states” including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump leads 49-45 according to this survey. The Democracy Institute poll is an outlier, for sure. However, it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s 2016 upset victory…. (“Dueling Poll Numbers And Grounds For Optimism” — POWERLINE)
  • ‘This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972’ One of Pennsylvania’s top newspapers has endorsed President Donald Trump over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a major win for Trump in a state that is critical to winning the White House. The endorsement was even more significant because the newspaper has not endorsed a Republican for president in nearly a half-century. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board, one of Pennsylvania’s largest newspapers, revealed late Saturday that Trump is their man…. (“Top Swing-State Newspaper Hasn’t Endorsed Republican In Almost 50 Years — But Is Backing Trump Now” — THE BLAZE)
  • (Map to the right is by Bruce Carrol… had to throw him in the mix! Click to enlarge)
  • Robert Cahaly, a pollster and political consultant who is the founder of the Trafalgar Group, is helping fuel questions with a series of polls showing Mr. Trump running stronger in battleground states than conventional wisdom suggests. “These polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote — what is referred to as the shy Trump voters,” Mr. Cahaly said recently on Fox News. “I definitely think it is going to be a surprise,” he told The Washington Times last week. “I think people just lie to pollsters.”…. (“Trump’S Hidden Vote In Question: ‘I Think People Just Lie To Pollsters'” — WASHINGTON TIMES)
  • From Minnesota to New Hampshire, Biden is down. PollWatch, Larry Schweikart, and David Chapman have been some of the people who have been tracking the early vote totals and the overall state of polling, in general, this cycle, cutting through the liberal nonsense. … (“If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes” — TOWNHALL)
  • The wonks are partially right: crowd sizes and rallies, caravans and carnival do not necessarily translate to all-important votes. But they are forgetting a few things. For all the intricacy and sophistication an election model may possess, it doesn’t know people. It doesn’t account for history. No model, not in my lifetime, will ever come close to doing so. Consider this: On the admittedly fun swing-state generator at FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden’s odds are around 90 percent. Hand Florida over to President Trump, and Biden is still strongly favored with 69 chances in 100. Yet Florida has picked the winner in every presidential election except one since 1964. Without Ross Perot in 1992, Florida’s record would be unblemished…. (“Trump: Always Be Closing” — AMERICAN GREATNESS)
  • In conclusion, Trump is well on his way to gain at least a 10-point increase in Latino and black votes combined.  Both groups make up about 32% of the Florida electorate and will likely have the same share of the votes.  This means that Trump can afford to lose white votes by 5 points (about 62% of the electorate in 2016) and still carry the Sunshine state. (“Will Trump Win Florida? An Update On The Numbers” — AMERICAN THINKER)

This will be my final post on this… I may update it [see above], but… between this and my other two posts (here and here) — the idea should suffice.

When gallop or other polling outfits call people to find out who they are voting for… they ask a series of questions about past voting habits to determine if they are a likely voter. Questions like:

  • Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
  • How often would you say you vote?
  • In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?
  • Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
  • ETC., ETC.

Someone who say “I haven’t voted in 20-years,” or, “I have never voted before,” or comments in the negative for the many questions like those exemplified above (ETC) are not included in the “likely voter.” And so, are not being represented in the stats used often by CNN, NYT, NPR, WaPo, etc.

Other factors is that in some major swing states new registrations for party affiliation — the GOP is outstripping the Dems. (However, this percentage disparity is not being polled for well — more the polls would have to add more Republican respondents to show the Party change.)

  • [I didn’t explain this well enough when I posted this early this morning. Polls are based on the previous 2-election cycles typically… so they stats are based on an understanding of voter turn out in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. However, this election cycle even now is setting records, and this newer voter and change of Party is part of the mix — which undermines the stats being presented by the MSM.]
  • …at least 93 million people have already voted – about two-thirds of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election, according to Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who runs the U.S. Elections Project. (USA TODAY)

Why is this import. Some Trump Rallies will help shed some light on this:


  • 15,852 voters identified
  • 31.8% were NOT Republicans
  • 16.3% were Democrat
  • 24.4% did not vote in 2016
  • 14.4% did not vote in the last 4 elections


  • 14,257 sign-ups
  • 26.8% were NOT Republicans
  • 19.9% were Democrats
  • 22.5% did not vote in 2016
  • 15.3% did not vote in the last 4 elections


  • 10,139 voters identified
  • 48.5% (!) NOT Republican
  • 29.4% (!) Democrat
  • 25.0% did not vote in 2016
  • 13.7% did not vote in the last 4 elections



  • 23,591 signups for Bullhead City rally  
  • 24.0% NOT Republican
  • 45.3% (!) did not vote in 2016

In Rochester, MN:  

  • 53.6% NOT Republican

In Green Bay, WI:

  • 52.6% NOT Republican


The “did not vote in 2016” and the “last four elections” would disqualify them from being included in the likely voter polls. In other words, THIS GUY would not be included in the official polls:

Other head tilts are as follows, but remember, these are projections:

  • Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That’s 10,000,000 votes!
  • Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
  • Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
  • Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
  • Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.

I also think that the Libertarian party not having a “Gary Johnson” again to run against Trump will siphon more votes towards Trump rather than the Libertarian Party this year. Here are some more anecdotal evidences:

The WASHINGTON EXAMINER notes the latest Zogby poll:

The latest Zogby Poll just shared with Secrets had Trump’s approval at 52%. “The president has recorded his best job approval rating on record,” said pollster Jonathan Zogby.

What’s more, his approval rating among minorities was solid and, in the case of African Americans, shockingly high. Zogby said 36% of blacks approve of the president, as do 37% of Hispanics and 35% of Asians….

[Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s reelected.]

Via 100% FED-UP: During an interview on CNN, Democrat Congresswoman Debbie Dingell conceded that auto workers in Michigan “were very clear with me…they were voting for President Trump.”

Byron York over at WASHINGTON EXAMINER notes the spontaneous Trump rallies:

  • It was the biggest political rally no one saw. And gatherings like it have been happening for months in some of the places President Trump needs most to win if he is to be reelected. And, remarkably, the rallies are not the work of the Trump campaign. The road rally in Washington, Pennsylvania, was organized and staged by local Trump supporters, linked together largely by Facebook, who want to show that enthusiasm for the president in western Pennsylvania and surrounding areas is not just strong but stronger than it was when Trump eked out a victory in Pennsylvania in 2016. If Trump wins this critical state, it will owe in significant part to this organic movement and the energetic organizers who have nothing to do with his campaign.

And Biden had his largest rally yet the other day where he addressed 771 people in 365 cars (remember, Biden’s campaign set this up and Biden was there). But a non-Trump rally in Miami drew over 30,000 cars (RIGHT SCOOP). (We had almost 500-cars in my suburb of L.A. grassroots car rally.)

BLACKSPHERE also notes Michael Moore and others recognizing this groundswell of enthusiasm:

  • But I’m not the only one who predicted Trump would win in 2016. So did filmmaker and avowed Leftist Michael Moore. And he has predicted another Trump victory, based on trends. Moore recognizes the pro-Trump ferver in the battleground states. Further, he understands that the part of the iceberg under water in 2020 in far larger that that of 2016, as he feels the passion for Trump around the country. Moore knows this, because he actually talks to other former Leftists. And he is not getting the typical Leftists feedback. He described the excitement for Trump as, “off the charts.”

Here is another example of a lifelong Democrat changing voting patters: “A life-long Democrat who serves on the Flint, Michigan city council has just endorsed President Trump in a great speech…. Maurice Davis, who spoke at a rally held by Mike Pence, said he voted for Hillary Clinton four years ago but this year he is switching to President Trump” (RIGHT SCOOP).

ADDED TODAY @ 10:15pm

(RIGHT SCOOP) Miami-Dade county, which went overwhelmingly for Clinton in 2016, suddenly has Democrats very worried according to CNN:

Fraternal Order of Police Chairman Rob Pride tells CNN that FOP leadership does not tell members who the group will be endorsing, but rather it’s the other way around. And he says the FOP members numbering over over 330,000 voted overwhelmingly to endorse President Trump for this presidential election. (RIGHT SCOOP)

While I know my biases play a large roll in my outlook, one can see how — LIKE IN 2016 — Trump could win. BIGLY.

Also this from GATEWAY PUNDIT confirming some of the above percentages:

Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster at Trafalgar Polling, joined Laura Ingraham on Thursday to discuss the latest battleground polls. Trafalgar Polling correctly predicted Michigan and Wisconsin would go for Donald Trump in 2016. And today he still feels the same way.


Robert also had this shocking news on Hispanic and Black voters this year.

Robert Cahaly: What we’re seeing with the Hispanics, the blacks and now the youth vote is starting to move. The Hispanic numbers in both states (Michigan and Florida) is 41 for Trump and the African American number in Nevada was 20 and 27 in Florida.


And also Evangelicals are turning to Trump in larger numbers (79%) than in 2016!

And, as I noted in a previous post, one of the most reliable voting predictors is the one where people are asked “are they better of than 4-years ago.” Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Two predictions – one by StatesPoll (left), and the other by Kevin McCullough (right) — CLICK TO ENLARGE:

Predicted 10/30

Predicted 10/28

I have to add this for the fun factor… this comes by way of “The Mooch’s” Twitter — he is showing a Biden landslide! Lol. I included Glenn Amurgis “crack pipe” comment:

Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball are predicting an electoral landslide like he did four years ago (NEWSTHUD), click to enlarge:


This is what my WIFE has hope for:

RED STATE contributors all made their own predictions:

Robert A. Hahn, Pundit Emeritus

The secret of the Universe is not 42. It is 37: Donald Trump wins 37 states. Joe Biden wins 37% of the popular vote.

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 340 to 197
  • House: Dems
  • Senate: Reps
  • Upset: Martha McSally (R-AZ)

Susie Moore, Senior Copy Editor

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 295 to 243
  • House: Dems
  • Senate: Reps
  • Upset: John James (R-MI)

Scott Hounsell, Polling Nerd

This is my quasi-wishcasting guess.  Trump wins MN just so he can brag he did something Reagan couldn’t.

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 295 -243
  • House: Dems (Republicans pick up a couple of seats)
  • Senate: Reps 53-47 (After GA Runoff in January)
  • Upset:  Jason Lewis (R-MN)

Brad Slager – Felonious Work Opportunity Tax Reduction Hire

  • Winner: President Trump
  • EV Count: 281 – 257
  • House: DEMS Retain, GOP makes gains
  • Senate: GOP
  • Upset: Candidate – John James, MI / State – Minn. going to Trump
  • Epilogue – One unforeseen influence apart from the platforms is how many voters are motivated against the media this time around. Less the effect of Trump’s ”Fake News” claims it is more a reaction to the growing hostility coming from the news industry, and seen on social media from journalists.

Dan Spencer, Senior Contributing Editor

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 300 – 238
  • House:  Dems
  • Senate: Reps
  • Upset: Susan Collins (R-ME)

Shipwreckedcrew, Contributor Legal Affairs Pundit

  • Winner:  Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 305 — 233
  • House:  GOP (less than 5 seat advantage)
  • Senate:  GOP (+2 net)
  • Upset: James (MI)

With all of the above, as I noted as well in my previous post, I would like to see the “forsureness” of a friend bumped down a notch. I will leave this and the other clips from Facebook up [even if Trump loses], out of fairness.

More Reasons To Be Excited About Super Tuesday

I just wanted to add some portion of a post I recently read to support the post of mine here, “One Day Of Biden Gaffes (Hugh Hewitt),” in which Kevin McCullough predicts Trump winning by 331 on the  Electoral Map. Here is AMERICAN THINKER’S article:

Two more hints [excerpts] that should make the optimist about 2020 happy.

….As things stand, Trump has a clear path to victory. But, in my humble opinion, it’s much more likely that Trump wins big than loses — even with “polls” showing Biden up by 15%.

I find that the data shows that Trump is likely keep all his 2016 states and win Minnesota and New Hampshire. Additionally, it is highly likely that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are in play. This could land him 35 states and an overwhelming victory in the popular vote. Here is why:  

  • Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That’s 10,000,000 votes!
  • Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
  • Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
  • Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
  • Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016. 

Any of these projections coming half-true would guarantee the President a victory. A combination would lead to a landslide.  

On the flip side, Democrats that lost in 2016 have struggled to grow their voter base in large part because they focus on marginal groups and those with low turnout. 

Democrat support for Antifa and defunding the police has alienated significant portions of key swing demographics like African Americans, Hispanics, union workers, and suburban women. Enthusiasm has been further dampened with the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Securing a 6-3 conservative majority for the next 20 years one week before the election will do that.

What is Joe Biden’s base? He has no base. That is why nobody shows up when he appears in public.

So, the map itself looks favorable for Trump despite what the mainstream media tells you……

The DAILY WIRE has an interesting post suggesting another “shotcaller” in 2016 that was one of the few that predicted Trump’s win. Here is a portion of that article:

….Most presidential pollsters blew the call in 2016.

But Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly got it mostly right. His group’s polling in 2016 showed Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of the election. Trump won all three, despite most polls saying he would lose the states.

Now, Cahaly says Trump is poised to do it again and will top the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win re-election.

“I see the president winning with a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said on Fox News.

“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what [we] refer to as the shy Trump voter,” he said. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment. And so, these people are more hesitant to … participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not trying to give them a poll that they can participate in … you’re not going to get honest answers.”

His hypothesis is supported by polls. A survey in July by Monmouth University of 401 Pennsylvania voters found that a majority of voters think there are Trump supporters out there who aren’t being counted.

“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%),” the pollsters wrote.

The Trafalgar group’s poll of 1,051 likely voters from Oct. 14-16 shows Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin by just over 1 percentage point, 47.5% to 46.3%. Other Trafalgar group polls show Trump ahead of Biden by 1 percentage point in Michigan, 2 points in Florida, and 4 points in both Arizona and Ohio, according to October surveys.

I would hope to throw a little love in the faces of a FB rival’s confidence…

One Day Of Biden Gaffes (Hugh Hewitt)

As above/below:

I just wanted to share a couple posts about polls, the first is via POWERLINE:

It is an odd election season. Pretty much everyone thinks the Democrats are on their way to a crushing victory, yet it is hard to see why. A whopping 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago, and President Trump draws large, enthusiastic crowds wherever he goes. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is a pale shell of his formerly buffoonish self. When Joe is able to get out of bed, his campaign schedules intimate invitation-only events. Supposedly this is because of COVID, but everyone knows it is really because he doesn’t want to be embarrassed by his inability to draw a crowd. Probably no one outside of Biden’s immediate family particularly wants him to be president.

So what is going on? One possibility is that the conventional wisdom is wrong. At TOWNHALL, Kevin McCullough, who has a pretty good record as an election forecaster, argues that we should believe our lying eyes:

To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.

The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”


We can dream. Finally, here is McCullough’s predicted electoral map (the first graphic is his most updated prediction):

Not to pour cold water on a much-needed bit of optimism, but McCullough has Minnesota going for Trump. But it has been reported here that the Trump campaign has pulled all of its remaining television ads from Minnesota stations.

Still, we can dream.

Remember, Kevin McCullough called the map dead on in 2016. Okay, the next is from RED STATE

Mainstream media have been trumpeting a lot of the polls being for Joe Biden.

We’ve pointed out the problems of some of those polls and how there are the other polls, like the Democracy Institute poll, that find President Donald Trump ahead because they’re measuring likely voters not registered voters and they aren’t oversampling Democrats. Most are also not measuring things like the shy Trump voter or that the youth vote is again unlikely to come out in greater numbers.

But what’s missing in a lot of the discourse is that the measures apart from MSM national polls by which you judge whether a president will be reelected are all for Trump.

First there’s no indication of a youth voter surge, that’s bad for the Democrats who poll much higher with the young than other age groups.

As I already wrote about, Trump has a 51% approval rating from Zogby.


Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s reelected.

Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. A reporter asked Joe Biden about that, he got snippy and said that if people thought that they didn’t have to vote for him and that their memories were somehow wrong.

The important thing to note? How high that number is for Trump and that all the prior president in 2012, 2004, 1992, 1984 who even had lower numbers were reelected.


David Chapman did a great Twitter thread of some of the other historical measures.

From Townhall:

“[N]o incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”

Oh, and it gets better.

“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,”

This tallies with the Helmut Norpoth prediction model that cites the importance of the primary numbers and also predicts a Trump win. People came out in droves for Trump in the primary when they didn’t even have to.

Want more? There’s more.

Every candidate who has led in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won. Trump not only leads in voter enthusiasm, he leads by a lot, a 19 point enthusiasm gap….