Last Post On Reason’s Trump Can Win (BIGLY!) |UPDATED 11-3|

(Note, I have added items throughout this post)
5:20 am update


Updated 11-3 (AM)


What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less. — Robert Cahaly

CONS

  • “Biden leads, 52% to 42%, among registered voters in national WSJ/NBC News poll; race in battleground states is narrowing.”…. (“President Trump Trails Joe Biden by 10 Points Nationally in Final Days of Election” — WSJ)
  • To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a chance at a second term: a 10 percent chance, to be more specific…. (“Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016” — 538)
  • Some WASHINGTON POST maps and scenarios.

PROS

  • If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling…. (“Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls” — LEGAL INSURRECTION | THE BLAZE)
  • A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally by 10 points, 52-42. The poll also finds that the race is somewhat tighter in 12 states the pollsters identify as “swing states.” Even so, if these poll numbers reflect the true state of the race, Trump has almost no chance of winning. On the other hand, a new poll by Democracy Institute/Sunday Express has the popular vote split evenly, with Trump nominally ahead by 48-47. In the “swing states” including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump leads 49-45 according to this survey. The Democracy Institute poll is an outlier, for sure. However, it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s 2016 upset victory…. (“Dueling Poll Numbers And Grounds For Optimism” — POWERLINE)
  • ‘This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972’ One of Pennsylvania’s top newspapers has endorsed President Donald Trump over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a major win for Trump in a state that is critical to winning the White House. The endorsement was even more significant because the newspaper has not endorsed a Republican for president in nearly a half-century. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board, one of Pennsylvania’s largest newspapers, revealed late Saturday that Trump is their man…. (“Top Swing-State Newspaper Hasn’t Endorsed Republican In Almost 50 Years — But Is Backing Trump Now” — THE BLAZE)
  • (Map to the right is by Bruce Carrol… had to throw him in the mix! Click to enlarge)
  • Robert Cahaly, a pollster and political consultant who is the founder of the Trafalgar Group, is helping fuel questions with a series of polls showing Mr. Trump running stronger in battleground states than conventional wisdom suggests. “These polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote — what is referred to as the shy Trump voters,” Mr. Cahaly said recently on Fox News. “I definitely think it is going to be a surprise,” he told The Washington Times last week. “I think people just lie to pollsters.”…. (“Trump’S Hidden Vote In Question: ‘I Think People Just Lie To Pollsters'” — WASHINGTON TIMES)
  • From Minnesota to New Hampshire, Biden is down. PollWatch, Larry Schweikart, and David Chapman have been some of the people who have been tracking the early vote totals and the overall state of polling, in general, this cycle, cutting through the liberal nonsense. … (“If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes” — TOWNHALL)
  • The wonks are partially right: crowd sizes and rallies, caravans and carnival do not necessarily translate to all-important votes. But they are forgetting a few things. For all the intricacy and sophistication an election model may possess, it doesn’t know people. It doesn’t account for history. No model, not in my lifetime, will ever come close to doing so. Consider this: On the admittedly fun swing-state generator at FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden’s odds are around 90 percent. Hand Florida over to President Trump, and Biden is still strongly favored with 69 chances in 100. Yet Florida has picked the winner in every presidential election except one since 1964. Without Ross Perot in 1992, Florida’s record would be unblemished…. (“Trump: Always Be Closing” — AMERICAN GREATNESS)
  • In conclusion, Trump is well on his way to gain at least a 10-point increase in Latino and black votes combined. Both groups make up about 32% of the Florida electorate and will likely have the same share of the votes. This means that Trump can afford to lose white votes by 5 points (about 62% of the electorate in 2016) and still carry the Sunshine state. (“Will Trump Win Florida? An Update On The Numbers” — AMERICAN THINKER)


This will be my final post on this… I may update it [see above], but… between this and my other two posts (here and here) — the idea should suffice.

When gallop or other polling outfits call people to find out who they are voting for… they ask a series of questions about past voting habits to determine if they are a likely voter. Questions like:

  • Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
  • How often would you say you vote?
  • In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?
  • Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
  • ETC., ETC.

Someone who say “I haven’t voted in 20-years,” or, “I have never voted before,” or comments in the negative for the many questions like those exemplified above (ETC) are not included in the “likely voter.” And so, are not being represented in the stats used often by CNN, NYT, NPR, WaPo, etc.

Other factors is that in some major swing states new registrations for party affiliation — the GOP is outstripping the Dems. (However, this percentage disparity is not being polled for well — more the polls would have to add more Republican respondents to show the Party change.)

  • [I didn’t explain this well enough when I posted this early this morning. Polls are based on the previous 2-election cycles typically… so they stats are based on an understanding of voter turn out in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. However, this election cycle even now is setting records, and this newer voter and change of Party is part of the mix — which undermines the stats being presented by the MSM.]
  • …at least 93 million people have already voted – about two-thirds of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election, according to Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who runs the U.S. Elections Project. (USA TODAY)

Why is this import. Some Trump Rallies will help shed some light on this:

FLORIDA

  • 15,852 voters identified
  • 31.8% were NOT Republicans
  • 16.3% were Democrat
  • 24.4% did not vote in 2016
  • 14.4% did not vote in the last 4 elections

PENNSYLVANIA

  • 14,257 sign-ups
  • 26.8% were NOT Republicans
  • 19.9% were Democrats
  • 22.5% did not vote in 2016
  • 15.3% did not vote in the last 4 elections

IOWA

  • 10,139 voters identified
  • 48.5% (!) NOT Republican
  • 29.4% (!) Democrat
  • 25.0% did not vote in 2016
  • 13.7% did not vote in the last 4 elections

(MSN NEWS)

ARIZONA

  • 23,591 signups for Bullhead City rally
  • 24.0% NOT Republican
  • 45.3% (!) did not vote in 2016

In Rochester, MN:

  • 53.6% NOT Republican

In Green Bay, WI:

  • 52.6% NOT Republican

(BREITBART)

The “did not vote in 2016” and the “last four elections” would disqualify them from being included in the likely voter polls. In other words, THIS GUY would not be included in the official polls:

Other head tilts are as follows, but remember, these are projections:

  • Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That’s 10,000,000 votes!
  • Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
  • Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
  • Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
  • Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.

I also think that the Libertarian party not having a “Gary Johnson” again to run against Trump will siphon more votes towards Trump rather than the Libertarian Party this year. Here are some more anecdotal evidences:

The WASHINGTON EXAMINER notes the latest Zogby poll:

The latest Zogby Poll just shared with Secrets had Trump’s approval at 52%. “The president has recorded his best job approval rating on record,” said pollster Jonathan Zogby.

What’s more, his approval rating among minorities was solid and, in the case of African Americans, shockingly high. Zogby said 36% of blacks approve of the president, as do 37% of Hispanics and 35% of Asians….

[Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s reelected.]

Via 100% FED-UP: During an interview on CNN, Democrat Congresswoman Debbie Dingell conceded that auto workers in Michigan “were very clear with me…they were voting for President Trump.”

Byron York over at WASHINGTON EXAMINER notes the spontaneous Trump rallies:

  • It was the biggest political rally no one saw. And gatherings like it have been happening for months in some of the places President Trump needs most to win if he is to be reelected. And, remarkably, the rallies are not the work of the Trump campaign. The road rally in Washington, Pennsylvania, was organized and staged by local Trump supporters, linked together largely by Facebook, who want to show that enthusiasm for the president in western Pennsylvania and surrounding areas is not just strong but stronger than it was when Trump eked out a victory in Pennsylvania in 2016. If Trump wins this critical state, it will owe in significant part to this organic movement and the energetic organizers who have nothing to do with his campaign.

And Biden had his largest rally yet the other day where he addressed 771 people in 365 cars (remember, Biden’s campaign set this up and Biden was there). But a non-Trump rally in Miami drew over 30,000 cars (RIGHT SCOOP). (We had almost 500-cars in my suburb of L.A. grassroots car rally.)

BLACKSPHERE also notes Michael Moore and others recognizing this groundswell of enthusiasm:

  • But I’m not the only one who predicted Trump would win in 2016. So did filmmaker and avowed Leftist Michael Moore. And he has predicted another Trump victory, based on trends. Moore recognizes the pro-Trump ferver in the battleground states. Further, he understands that the part of the iceberg under water in 2020 in far larger that that of 2016, as he feels the passion for Trump around the country. Moore knows this, because he actually talks to other former Leftists. And he is not getting the typical Leftists feedback. He described the excitement for Trump as, “off the charts.”

Here is another example of a lifelong Democrat changing voting patters: “A life-long Democrat who serves on the Flint, Michigan city council has just endorsed President Trump in a great speech…. Maurice Davis, who spoke at a rally held by Mike Pence, said he voted for Hillary Clinton four years ago but this year he is switching to President Trump” (RIGHT SCOOP).


ADDED TODAY @ 10:15pm


(RIGHT SCOOP) Miami-Dade county, which went overwhelmingly for Clinton in 2016, suddenly has Democrats very worried according to CNN:

Fraternal Order of Police Chairman Rob Pride tells CNN that FOP leadership does not tell members who the group will be endorsing, but rather it’s the other way around. And he says the FOP members numbering over over 330,000 voted overwhelmingly to endorse President Trump for this presidential election. (RIGHT SCOOP)

While I know my biases play a large roll in my outlook, one can see how — LIKE IN 2016 — Trump could win. BIGLY.

Also this from GATEWAY PUNDIT confirming some of the above percentages:

Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster at Trafalgar Polling, joined Laura Ingraham on Thursday to discuss the latest battleground polls. Trafalgar Polling correctly predicted Michigan and Wisconsin would go for Donald Trump in 2016. And today he still feels the same way.

[….]

Robert also had this shocking news on Hispanic and Black voters this year.

Robert Cahaly: What we’re seeing with the Hispanics, the blacks and now the youth vote is starting to move. The Hispanic numbers in both states (Michigan and Florida) is 41 for Trump and the African American number in Nevada was 20 and 27 in Florida.

[….]

And also Evangelicals are turning to Trump in larger numbers (79%) than in 2016!

And, as I noted in a previous post, one of the most reliable voting predictors is the one where people are asked “are they better of than 4-years ago.” Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Two predictions – one by StatesPoll (left), and the other by Kevin McCullough (right) — CLICK TO ENLARGE:

Predicted 10/30

Predicted 10/28

I have to add this for the fun factor… this comes by way of “The Mooch’s” Twitter — he is showing a Biden landslide! Lol. I included Glenn Amurgis “crack pipe” comment:

Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball are predicting an electoral landslide like he did four years ago (NEWSTHUD), click to enlarge:

CLINTON
BIDEN

This is what my WIFE has hope for:

RED STATE contributors all made their own predictions:

Robert A. Hahn, Pundit Emeritus

The secret of the Universe is not 42. It is 37: Donald Trump wins 37 states. Joe Biden wins 37% of the popular vote.

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 340 to 197
  • House: Dems
  • Senate: Reps
  • Upset: Martha McSally (R-AZ)

Susie Moore, Senior Copy Editor

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 295 to 243
  • House: Dems
  • Senate: Reps
  • Upset: John James (R-MI)

Scott Hounsell, Polling Nerd

This is my quasi-wishcasting guess. Trump wins MN just so he can brag he did something Reagan couldn’t.

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 295 -243
  • House: Dems (Republicans pick up a couple of seats)
  • Senate: Reps 53-47 (After GA Runoff in January)
  • Upset: Jason Lewis (R-MN)

Brad Slager – Felonious Work Opportunity Tax Reduction Hire

  • Winner: President Trump
  • EV Count: 281 – 257
  • House: DEMS Retain, GOP makes gains
  • Senate: GOP
  • Upset: Candidate – John James, MI / State – Minn. going to Trump
  • Epilogue – One unforeseen influence apart from the platforms is how many voters are motivated against the media this time around. Less the effect of Trump’s ”Fake News” claims it is more a reaction to the growing hostility coming from the news industry, and seen on social media from journalists.

Dan Spencer, Senior Contributing Editor

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 300 – 238
  • House: Dems
  • Senate: Reps
  • Upset: Susan Collins (R-ME)

Shipwreckedcrew, Contributor Legal Affairs Pundit

  • Winner: Donald J. Trump
  • Electoral Vote Count: 305 — 233
  • House: GOP (less than 5 seat advantage)
  • Senate: GOP (+2 net)
  • Upset: James (MI)

With all of the above, as I noted as well in my previous post, I would like to see the “forsureness” of a friend bumped down a notch. I will leave this and the other clips from Facebook up [even if Trump loses], out of fairness.

Average Age, Co-Morbidities, Inflated “Rona” Deaths, Anti-Bodies

JUMP TO…

More than half of U.S. deaths are from nursing homes — THE GUARDIAN:

  • Yale professor describes as ‘staggering’ research that reveals more than half of all deaths in 14 US states from elderly care facilities

The average age group who dies from “The Rona” is found here in the latest from WORLD O’METER:

Not only that, but the co-morbidities (just as in flu deaths) are high and in multiples. Some examples:

  • Of the 22,332 people who died in hospital in England between 31 March and 12 May, 5,873 (26%) suffered from either type 1 or type 2 diabetes, NHS England figures reveal. That was the most common illness found in an analysis of what existing conditions patients had. The other commonest comorbidities were dementia (18%), serious breathing problems (15%) and chronic kidney disease (14%). One in ten (10%) suffered from ischaemic heart disease. (GUARDIAN)
  • A new study published April 22 in the Journal of the American Medical Association characterizes the symptoms, comorbidities, and clinical outcomes of 5,700 patients hospitalized because of COVID-19 in the New York area. The authors found that 94 percent of the patients had a chronic health problem, and 88 percent had two or more. The three most prevalent conditions were hypertension (56.6 percent), obesity (41.7 percent), and diabetes (33.8 percent). (THE SCIENTIST)

Now, many of these deaths were preventable, but for some reason many of the hardest hit states had a tragic policy of sending elderly patients back to nursing homes to recover. Many of the blue states, where most of the deaths have occurred:

  • If you live in New Jersey, you are 13 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than if you live in Florida. The Garden State’s death rate per million is 895.2, according to the RealClearPolitics coronavirus tracker, compared to only 65.1 deaths per million for Florida. This disparity can’t be written off to demography or testing. Florida has a huge elderly population, and it has conducted twice as many tests as New Jersey. (AMERICAN SPECTATOR)

I have a slew of articles regarding this deadly choice by Andrew Cuomo on my site (FULLY reproduced here):


Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Deadly Decision


ERIC METAXAS interviews John Zmirak about his article, “Why Is Andrew Cuomo Killing Patients In Nursing Homes? Imagine If We’D Responded To AIDS By Closing Everything BUT The Gay Bath Houses” (THE STREAM), that puts Governor Cuomo’s “fatal decision” regarding Covid-19 and nursing homes squarely in the bullseye.

Here are SOME of the other stories (earliest to latest) you have probably not heard reported about in the MSM:

  • Andrew Cuomo’s Coronavirus Nursing Home Policy Proves Tragic (NEW YORK POST);
  • Gov. Cuomo Says ‘It’s Not Our Job’ To Provide PPE To Nursing Homes (NEW YORK POST);
  • Forcing Nursing Homes To Take Coronavirus Patients Is Just Insane — And Evil (NEW YORK POST);
  • State Lacked Common Sense In Nursing Homes Coronavirus Approach (NEW YORK POST);
  • Cuomo Doubles Down On Ordering Nursing Homes To Admit Coronavirus Patients (NEW YORK POST);
  • Andrew Cuomo Under Fire for Directive Requiring Nursing Homes to Accept Coronavirus Patients (BREITBART);
  • New York Required Nursing Homes To Admit ‘Medically Stable’ Coronavirus Patients. The Results Were Deadly (DAILY WIRE)
  • ‘Blood On His Hands’: Mark Levin Rips Andrew Cuomo Over ‘Deadly Fiat’ Nursing Home Controversy (WASHINGTON EXAMINER);
  • Three Hardest-Hit, Democrat-Run States Force Nursing Homes To Accept Recovering COVID Patients, Face Backlash (DAILY WIRE);
  • Cuomo Claims He Didn’t Know About New York Rule Forcing Nursing Homes To Accept Elderly With COVID-19 (THE FEDERALIST);
  • Cuomo To Blame For Covid Spreading Through Nursing Home (NEW YORK POST);
  • Media Doesn’t Care That People Died Because Cuomo Put Coronavirus Patients In Nursing Homes (THE FEDERALIST).

I have some older posts dealing with [in some way] Andrew Cuomo (Apparently I only post about Governor Cuomo in the first half of the year?):


End of Reproduction


MAY I ALSO NOTE that I believe the deaths from The Rona are a bit overstated, while Dr. Birx noted that the CDC may be inflating the death toll by 25%, I provide a couple other examples to support my claim. First up, Dr. Birx setting the stage for this with how deaths are coded:

Another example comes from Dr. Ngozi, Director of public health Illinois. She explains how ALL deaths are counted as Covid-19 even if the patient was diagnosed to have die from another disease:

Here is more information from Daniel Horowitz over at CONSERVATIVE REVIEW:

1) The shocking inflation of COVID-19 death numbers: From day one, we were warned that states are ascribing every single death of anyone who happens to test positive for the coronavirus — even if they are asymptomatic — to the virus rather than the clear cause of death. Now, thanks to a lawsuit in Colorado, the state was forced to revise its death count down by 23 % over the weekend — from 1,150 to 878. The state is now publishing numbers of deaths “with” COVID-19 separate from deaths “from” COVID-19. As I reported on Thursday, county officials started accusing the state’s department of health of reclassifying deaths of those who tested positive for the virus but died of things like alcohol poisoning as COVID-19 deaths just to insidiously inflate the numbers. This revision in Colorado is a bombshell story that, of course, will remain unknown to most Americans. Every state needs to do this, and if they did, we would find an across-the-board drop in numbers by at least 25%, the same %age by which Dr. Birx reportedly believes the count is being inflated, according to the Washington Post. For example, in Minnesota, state officials are now admitting that every single person who dies in a nursing home after testing positive is now deemed to have died from the virus, never mind the fact that 25% of all natural deaths in a given week occur in nursing homes and that most cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, which means more often than not, they died exclusively of other causes.

(there are five other points made by Horowitz)

TO WITDennis Prager’s guest is Dr. Joel Hay, who is a professor in the department of Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy at the University of Southern California. Both give examples of cancer deaths being coded Covid:

And my third evidence to support my contention a nurse is filmed commenting on the percentages of deaths at NYC hospital. In my posts point #2 (the video still up amazingly) notes that every death cert in NYC-hospital is coded as Rona. In fact, 99% of deaths from that hospital were coded Rona during a period — AN IMPOSSIBLE statistic (https://tinyurl.com/y9awsuor — my site)

A CLEARER PICTURE blog comments on the above indirectly:

….In New York City, around 12,000 people have supposedly died from COVID-19 at the time of this writing. That’s 22% of all alleged U.S. deaths.

Around 7,000 of the NYC deaths attributed to COVID-19 have been thoroughly investigated to determine if there was another serious life-threatening illness present

Take a deep breath if doing so hasn’t been outlawed where you live.

99.2% of those 7,000 New Yorkers who supposedly died from the virus had another antecedent life-threatening illness. For all intents and purposes, that’s all of them.

How is it even remotely possible that 7,000 NYC deaths attributed to COVID-19 were investigated and virtually every single one of them found to have involved at least one other life-threatening illness if the virus is in and of itself deadly?

Most strains of coronavirus that affect humans are common cold viruses.

In light of the apparent almost universal prevalence of at least one other deadly disease among the alleged NYC deceased…

And in light of all the factors massively inflating the bogus death tally we’re being fed every day…

What reason do we have to believe COVID-19 is actually killing anyone?

No one knows how many Americans have really died of COVID-19….

However, we are starting to find out that “pure” deaths caused by Covid-19 exclusivelt is low (DAILY WIRE):

On Tuesday, San Diego county Supervisor Jim Desmond said after digging into the data that he believes only six of the county’s 194 coronavirus-identified deaths are “pure” coronavirus deaths, meaning they died from the virus, not merely with the virus.

Desmond was seemingly ruling out deaths from individuals with preexisting conditions.

“We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” Desmond said on a podcast, Armstrong & Getty Extra Large Interviews, according to San Diego Tribune. “I mean, what number are we trying to get to with those odds. I mean, it’s incredible. We want to be safe, and we can do it, but unfortunately, it’s more about control than getting the economy going again and keeping people safe.”

Public Health Officer Dr. Wilma Wooten suggested Wednesday during a press briefing that Desmond was being callous, noting that their liberal identification of COVID-19 deaths is uniform with coding nationwide.

“Their life is no less valuable than someone’s life who does not have underlying medical conditions,” Wooten said. “This is not just San Diego. This is how this is done throughout the entire nation in terms of identifying who has died of COVID-19.”

Also note that all the anti-body tests are showing a larger infected population than previously considered. REASON.COM previously noted the Stanford study that between “48,000 and 81,000 residents of Santa Clara County, California are likely to have already been infected by the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.” Stanford University has revised the numbers to better fit the assumption (via MERCURY NEWS):

In a revised analysis of a startling study published last month, they now estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara residents were previously infected by the virus but didn’t know it.

That implies that the county had up to 54,000 infections — many more than the 1,000 confirmed cases in the county at the time.

“This suggests that the large majority of the population does not have antibodies and may be susceptible to the virus,” concludes the research paper, published in the online report medRxiv….

MY COMMENTS FROM MY FACEBOOK ABOUT THE ABOVE

So, Stanford settled on a number in early April… when there were 1,000 CONFIRMED cases were known in Santa Clara, there were 54,000 infected. To REALLY understand the percentages you would have to follow those 1,000 KNOWN cases from that time and compare the 55,000 cases to those deaths. (BTW, Stanford took the lower path on stats; so there could be a larger number.) Here is part of the article… but know that with the flu shot, there are more deaths by the flu than The Rona, without a “Rona shot.”

UPDATE (trying to figure out deaths per infections): Okay, let us apply the 98% survive who are known to have it and are hospitalized stat I have heard for some time. So 2% of the 1,000 is 20. 20 deaths from that early April figure of 55,000. Right? Gives you… 0.036%


UPDATES!


A friend on FACEBOOK has been a light in the war-torn field of The Rona (Wu Flu) battle of infection rates. Here are two posts of his [combined with a response to a friendly comment from one of his peeps] followed by some recent articles (links to papers will be in graphics):

Here’s a new meta-study from Stanford of all of the antibody testing that’s happened.

This puts the Wu Flu anywhere between 7x LESS deadly than the flu and 2.8x MORE deadly than the flu (making it a little worse than a bad flu season like 2018). And that’s assuming that this doesn’t follow SARS 1 and just disappear.

The data behind this is really solid, and the author is well-respected. Unlike those stupid models we were using, this is really real data.

We don’t do contact tracing, social distancing, mask-wearing, or lockdowns for the seasonal flu, and this looks like a watered down seasonal flu that got 100000000x more media attention and governors sending sick people to nursing homes to boost up the death rate.

The original post (OP) on this second strain was a graphic. I will link to the Kent County (Michigan site through it. Here is my FB description of the following: “A person named B.M. wrote on a friends Facebook wall the following regarding “contact tracing.” (The original post had to do with hiring government employees to trace citizens with Covid.)”

(See also this BRIDGE article)

  • [A reader of JP’s noted] Actually, contact tracing sounds like a legitimate work of government. Rather than quarantining the healthy, quarantine the sick and monitor those exposed to the disease.

JP responded:


Sorry in advance for the novel! Heh, I started thinking of other interesting things to add and just decided to run with it.

Contact tracing might work for illnesses that don’t spread very easily (it probably would have exterminated HIV, according to what I’ve read; I’m no expert but it seems reasonable), but for upper respiratory stuff like colds and flus (and the Wu Flu), it’s pretty much doomed, especially with up to 10% of the whole country already having the it.

The original point of the lockdowns (which don’t seem to have worked; lockdown and non-lockdown countries and states have almost identical statistics) was to slow the spread to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. It wasn’t to stop spread, since even the CDC admits that after about 1% of people are infected with a contagious disease, you can’t really close the door on it anymore. Contact tracing is a relatively invasive way of closing the door on a virus, so I don’t think it will work here**.

The data points to a much less lethal bug, though. Stanford’s meta analysis of all of the large-scale antibody testing shows an IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) between 7 times less than the seasonal flu and 2.8 times more. It’s probably in the middle, making it slightly less lethal than regular seasonal flus. And since we know it has been in the US at least since January (probably since December or earlier), the R? (Basic Reproduction Number or Rate) is also much lower than people originally thought. So it spreads like the flu and is as deadly as the flu.

The main difference seems to be the 24/7 media terrorizing of citizens, the complete ignorance most of us (that’s me, too) had in the real pneumonia/influenza deaths each year, and the downright evil policy of many Democrat governors of sending the sick to recover (while contagious) at nursing homes, boosting the deaths by up to 50%.

Sorry for the novel!! Reading every little bit about this thing has become an unfortunate hobby of mine. I’m of the mind now that the best strategy is to fight the fear instead of the virus and to get back to normal in virtually every way. If this is anything like it’s older brother SARS, it will die out in the next couple of months. But if not, keeping everyone from immunity just means extending the risk.

** I think contact tracing may -appear- to work because I think we are naturally bottoming out cases. Same, in my mind, for other measures.

One final bit: I’ve followed lots of different predictions to see who might get things most accurately to see what they did differently. This guy’s been right on (it’s been almost scary) using SARS as a comparison instead of the Spanish Flu (since this bug is SARS 2). This is a really good visual of the whole thing:

(Click to enlarge)

ALSO, a short bit from Bruce Carrol:

“If you are waiting for a “cure” for COVID-19, you’ll never leave your home again.

Even the flu vaccine (not vaccine, flu shot. There is a vaccine for the Polio, not HIV or SARS) results in 60-80,000 deaths every season.

We have to stop the fearmongering and start learning to live with a new virus in a string of new viruses that have emerged for tens of thousands of years.

Boomers and Millennials aren’t that special of a species.”

— Bruce Carroll (Co-founder of the gay Republican group GOProu, and founder of GAYPATRIOT)

TO WIT…

The SPECTATOR USA has an excellent article backing up the above conversation, entitled, “Stanford Study Suggests Coronavirus Might Not Be As Deadly As Flu: All their estimates for IFR are markedly lower than the figures thrown about a couple of months ago” (This was a SPECTATOR UK original piece – FYI)

One of the great unknowns of the COVID-19 crisis is just how deadly the disease is. Much of the panic dates from the moment, in early March, when the World Health Organization (WHO) published a mortality rate of 3.2 percent — which turned out to be a crude ‘case fatality rate’ dividing the number of deaths by the number of recorded cases, ignoring the large number of cases which are asymptomatic or otherwise go unrecorded.

The Imperial College modeling, which has been so influential on the UK government, assumed an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.9 percent. This was used to compute the infamous prediction that 250,000 Britons would die unless the government abandoned its mitigation strategy and adopted instead a policy of suppressing the virus through lockdown. Imperial later revised its estimate of the IFR down to 0.66 percent — although the March 16 paper which predicted 250,000 deaths was not updated.

In the past few weeks, a slew of serological studies estimating the prevalence of infection in the general population has become available. This has allowed Prof John Ioannidis of Stanford University to work out the IFR in 12 different locations.

They range between 0.02 percent and 0.5 percent — although Ioannidis has corrected those raw figures to take account of demographic balance and come up with estimates between 0.02 percent and 0.4 percent. The lowest estimates came from Kobe, Japan, found to have an IFR of 0.02 percent and Oise in northern France, with an IFR of 0.04 percent. The highest were in Geneva (a raw figure of 0.5 percent) and Gangelt in Germany (0.28 percent).

The usual caveats apply: most studies to detect the prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the general population remain unpublished, and have not yet been peer-reviewed. Some are likely to be unrepresentative of the general population. The Oise study, in particular, was based on students, teachers and parents in a single high school which was known to be a hotspot on COVID-19 infection. At the other end of the table, Geneva has a relatively high age profile, which is likely to skew its death rate upwards.

But it is noticeable how all these estimates for IFR are markedly lower than the figures thrown about a couple of months ago, when it was widely asserted that COVID-19 was a whole magnitude worse than flu. Seasonal influenza is often quoted as having an IFR of 0.1 to 0.2 percent. The Stanford study suggests that COVID-19 might not, after all, be more deadly than flu — although, as Ioannidis notes, the profile is very different: seasonal flu has a higher IFR in developing countries, where vaccination is rare, while COVID-19 has a higher death rate in the developed world, thanks in part of more elderly populations.

The Stanford study, however, does not include the largest antibody study to date: that involving a randomized sample of 70,000 Spanish residents, whose preliminary results were published by the Carlos III Institute of Health two weeks ago. That suggested that five percent of the Spanish population had been infected with the virus. With 27,000 deaths in the country, that would convert to an IFR of 1.1 percent.

This backs up of course some excellent article by Daniel Horowitz:

A CLEARER PICTURE has a great post about this as well, I suggest if you like what you see you check out that blog weekly.

For one thing, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have both explicitly stated that anyone dying WITH the virus is counted as dying FROM it. Since 4/5 of COVID-19 infections are mild and 1/2 appear to show no symptoms at all, the official U.S. death tally is bound to include many in which it played little or no role.

The CDC has made matters much worse by insisting that doctors list COVID-19 on death certificates without a positive test confirming its presence and even absent any medical justification at all. A willingness to “assume” it was a factor is all that’s officially required. And hospitals now reap enormous financial rewards for making the assumption.

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Those in charge couldn’t have possibly shown less interest in determining the real number of Americans who would still be alive if not for having contracted COVID-19. It’s unlikely that ours is the only country in which the data has been turned into garbage by a perfect storm of inflating factors. As hard as it may be to accept, the odds are pretty much nil that we’ll ever know how deadly the virus we were made to spend months obsessively fearing really was.

Even on the inflated numbers we’re getting, however, it isn’t anywhere near 10 times deadlier than the flu; as Dr. Fauci claimed on March 11, while ginning up support for his novel public health strategy of extinguishing our rights and wrecking the economy. But, of course, a few weeks later, we learned that even Fauci didn’t believe a word of the lie he so effectively used to terrorize a nation of over 300 million people into suicidal obedience.

Though perhaps you haven’t heard. You see, on March 26, Dr. Fauci shared his true opinion with his peers in the pages of the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine:

The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).

Dr. Anthony Fauci, March 26, 2020 New England Journal of Medicine

In case you’re wondering, the parenthetical remark is his, not mine. Moreover, when Sharyl Attkisson contacted the journal about the strange discrepancy between what Fauci was scaring the public with and the substantially less alarming take his learned colleagues heard, she discovered his article had been submitted “many weeks ago.”….

(READ IT ALL)

Backfire! California Constitution Says Prop 8 Is Still Law

The Will of the People

…As a gay conservative, I’ve always been conflicted about the issue of gay marriage. I guess it is because my political and moral philosophies are not dictated by the desire to be loved by the president or the federal government. I believe that my rights as an American citizen come from my Creator, not Barack Obama, John Roberts or Nancy Pelosi. But the reaction from most gay liberals today to theoverturning of the Defense of Marriage Act and reversing the California voters’ decision in Proposition 8 has been the opposite. The gay political class is celebrating Big Government waving its haughty approval like King George III waving his hand over his colonies.

So for those of my gay and lesbian brothers and sisters who needed the federal government’s emotional approval of their relationship: Congratulations. I just hope all gay and lesbian Americans take a moment to stop and thank Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush for nominating Justices Kennedy and Roberts so the Clinton era of discrimination could come to an end Wednesday…

(Bruce Carroll, via Gay Patriot and USA Today)

What Bruce got wrong in the above [excellent] article is that the will of the people has not been overturned… and as a gay man who loves our Constitution, he should fight for the will of the people and allow this change to come legally… as he has in the past.

Via Breitbart:

…But that means Prop 8 is still the law in California. Section 3.5 of the California Constitution specifically commands:

An administrative agency … has no power:

(a) To declare a statute unenforceable, or refuse to enforce a statute, on the basis of it being unconstitutional unless an appellate court has made a determination that such statute is unconstitutional;

(b) To declare a statute unconstitutional;

(c) To declare a statute unenforceable, or to refuse to enforce a statute on the basis that federal law or federal regulations prohibit the enforcement of such statute unless an appellate court has made a determination that the enforcement of such statute is prohibited by federal law or federal regulations.

As of today, there is no appellate opinion (meaning an opinion issued by a court of appeals) against Prop 8. The Supreme Court refused to issue one, and threw out the only other one (the Ninth Circuit’s). There is only a trial court opinion. So every agency in California is legally bound to regard Prop 8 as binding law….

…read more…

Liberals, apparently, are happy with 9th Circuit acting unConstitutionally? You see, a healthy court — and the 9th Circuit is NOT healthy — should not have gotten involved, at least according to SCOTUS. But judicial activism is the 9th Circuits game, and the Supe’s (SCOTUS) rightly stayed out of it.

The `Smart Guys` Debate

Erwin Chemerinsky ~ is the founding Dean and Distinguished Professor of Law, and Raymond Pryke Professor of First Amendment Law, at the University of California, Irvine School of Law, with a joint appointment in Political Science.

Dr. John C. Eastman ~ is the Henry Salvatori Professor of Law & Community Service at Chapman University School of Law, and also served as the School’s Dean from June 2007 to January 2010, when he stepped down to pursue a bid for California Attorney General. He is the Founding Director of the Center for Constitutional Jurisprudence, a public interest law firm affiliated with the Claremont Institute.

The decision is really the best possible outcome we could of hoped for in regards to Proposition eight. Why? Because Prop 8 is still law and it will properly ascend back up the chain of legal ladder rungs when an attorney general refuses to marry same-sex couples according to state law.

The DOMA strengthened state-power in deciding what marriage is — as the constitution says. So the states that have defined marriage as between man-and-woman have less to fear. Mind you, the DOMA ruling will hit some snags, I explain;

But there are major inconsistencies that will need to head back to court to be smoothed out. For instance, if a couple is married in New York, and then moves to a state that doesn’t recognize SSM… Federal benefits do or do not apply? The state is not required to provide be benefits, and DOMA does not change this. A point mentioned in passing by doc Eastman is will the Feds have to confer benefits to all persons in a polygamous marriage if a state plays this? [Also, religious freedom will be front and center… more on this below]

So it is a win on the SCOTUS level… a loss [strike that earlier statement] win to voters rights on the lower level. Because, as the Breitbart article showed above, as well as the audio of Constitutional professor/Dean, John Eastman, explained — state powers were increased. Which brings us back to prop 8 and what the court[s] said/did:

(AP) ….The high court itself said nothing about the validity of gay marriage bans in California and roughly three dozen other states.

The outcome was not along ideological lines.

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan and Antonin Scalia.

“We have no authority to decide this case on the merits, and neither did the 9th Circuit,” Roberts said, referring to the federal appeals court that also struck down Proposition 8….

As I pointed out, Prop 8 does not go by-by. There are nuances that will not be felt for a few days… but I will quickly explain what I understand:

In the California’s constitution, the government *HAS TO* uphold a proposition (again, by law) until the prop is said to be unconstitutional by an upper court. The Supe’s said they had no jurisdiction, and neither did the 9th circuit. The 9th vacated their position, and the ruling falls back down to the local judges ruling.

Which means — I believe — that the judges ruling is only effective for the two couples suing, or that particular district?

So what will happen?

…continued below

…Con’t

Jerry Brown has ordered — unlawfully mind you, because prop 8 is still legal (Camilla Harris also misunderstands California’s Constitution) — all 58 districts to start performing SSM. All it will take is one conservative county/attorney general to say no… and the case will again rise up to the echelons of SCOTUS (which has been making some good choices as of late). Except this time it will be in the Courts Jurisdiction because you will have a defense and a prosecution on its rise, which the original case did not.

In-other-words, as Dr. Eastman points out, seeing if Jerry brown and the Attorney General, Camilla Harris, follow state law is really more important than the Same-Sex Marriage debate!

Another aspect of this is the affect DOMA will have on religion, freedom of choice, and the like. Already, even in the Supreme Court, there are ad-hominem attacks and rhetoric that is itself bigoted and intolerant.

(National Journal) …In a ripping dissent, Scalia says that Justice Anthony Kennedy and his colleagues in the majority have resorted to calling opponents of gay marriage “enemies of the human race.” Despite this being the first time in human history, gender and marriage (as being between man and woman) being challenged… we are[!?] enemies of the human race? Sick!

But to defend traditional marriage is not to condemn, demean, or humiliate those who would prefer other arrangements, any more than to defend the Constitution of the United States is to condemn, demean, or humiliate other constitutions. To hurl such accusations so casually demeans this institution. In the majority’s judgment, any resistance to its holding is beyond the pale of reasoned disagreement. To question its high-handed invalidation of a presumptively valid statute is to act (the majority is sure) with the purpose to “disparage,” “injure,” “degrade,” “demean,” and “humiliate” our fellow human beings, our fellow citizens, who are homo- sexual. All that, simply for supporting an Act that did no more than codify an aspect of marriage that had been unquestioned in our society for most of its existence— indeed, had been unquestioned in virtually all societies for virtually all of human history. It is one thing for a society to elect change; it is another for a court of law to impose change by adjudging those who oppose it hostes humani generis, enemies of the human race.

(See “Deck O Race-Cards“)

The new regulations will surely thrust more cases into SCOTUS and we will finally tilt one-way or the other — by this I mean will the American people understand the clear enumerated protection of religious practice, belief in the 1st Amendment? or a hitherto unknown “right-to-marry” for same-sex couples hiding between the lines in the Constitution. The two cannot co-exist in the end.

As DOMA is implemented in the Military, we will see a clash of the above enumerated right and the special rights applied to a minority (Breitbart):

…In the Washington Post, Timothy Broglio, archbishop for the Military Services, USA, wrote:

Erosion

“Defenders of marriage may find that their rights to voice their beliefs and live according to them are quickly eroding after this court decision.” ~ Michelle Bauman

I remain confident that people of this great country, no matter the consequences, will continue to promote and defend the good and the truth of marriage as the union of one man and one woman as husband and wife for life. Marriage remains what it has always been, regardless of what any government might say.

I likewise remain confident that the First Amendment constitutional guarantee of the “free exercise of religion” will forever ensure that no restrictions or limitations on the teaching of the Catholic faith will be placed on any Catholic priest or deacon in the armed forces. Furthermore, the Constitution guarantees that no endorsed minister will ever be compelled to perform a religious ceremony contrary to the dictates of his/her faith nor will today’s decision have any effect on the role and teaching ability of a priest or deacon in the pulpit, the classroom, the barracks or in the office.

This archdiocese remains resolved in the belief that no Catholic priest will ever be compelled to condone – even silently – same-sex “marriages.”

Michelle Bauman, assistant editor for Catholic News Agency and EWTN News, wrote Wednesday that while the Supreme Court did not claim “to have discovered a fundamental ‘right’ to marry,” or a point-blank “redefinition of marriage” that would be imposed on the entire country, overturning DOMA “will affect more than 1,000 regulations and legal provisions, and could have a sweeping impact on both the legal and cultural understanding of what marriage is.”

“In addition,” wrote Bauman, “since the federal government must acknowledge all state-recognized marriages, there will be increased pressure on the states to redefine marriage.”…

No Religious Person In History Ever Supported Same-Sex Marriage from Papa Giorgio on Vimeo.

One of the failings in our current generation is the understanding behind the ethos of the founding documents of our nation. What the writers of these pieces of foundational guidelines said themselves, here is one example:

“…we have no government, armed with power, capable of contending with human passions, unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge and licentiousness would break the strongest cords of our Constitution, as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”

John Adams, first (1789–1797) Vice President of the United States, and the second (1797–1801) President of the United States. Letter to the Officers of the First Brigade of the Third Division of the Militia of Massachusetts, 11 October 1798, in Revolutionary Services and Civil Life of General William Hull (New York, 1848), pp 265-6.

And we know what the Founder’s meant by the word “religion” from the debates about the First Amendment. We also know what a proper definition of a Republic means, which is what we live in… not a Democracy:

So, to conclude, while there is a lot to be optimistic about, one shouldn’t give up the fight for the ideological mind. Ours is a cause worthy of the best thinking on the matter. And a side note… debating issues. I was recently challenged with polygamy and the Bible. Christians contort for no reason over the topic. A topic meant to take your eye off the ball:

Mountain Man said

The issue of polygamy is tangentially related because the same-sex marriage debate is nothing more than an open declaration of war on the traditional and historical institution of marriage.

I agree…. however, people miss the larger issue in talking to non-believers, as well as showing believers how to make an impact on culture.

Please allow me to explain.

The Judeo-Christian understanding (as well as some of the big thinkers via Greece, like Plato and Aeschines) teaches/taught that marriage should be between one-man and one woman — or in the least between male and female. But polygamy proves the point that relationships — even in their accepted form by pagan or fallen society — have always been “male/female.” no major world religious founder, great moral thinker, or political theorist of old ever advocated this union.

So, when I debate a non-Christian on the matter, I use the idea of polygamy to make the point that this current movement is radical in its core, or, extreme. While the other side paints us as extreme for defending the idea of even male-female conventions in relationships, you can show that they are the first to reject the thinking of wise men and all culture before this generation, and that [in fact] they are the ones acting extreme. Even to the point of trying to rid society of gender differences [male/female].

But as I see it, in the marriage debate, polygamy is evidence from history that the norm a) accepted gender differences, and b) relationships have always been male-female. It is an arrow in my quiver, not someone saying the Bible approves polygamy. While the Bible does not divinely inspire polygamy and slavery, etc, it shows as a history text AND as a Divinely inspired text that relationships are male/female. I do not need to explain verse-by-verse the issue…

…the other side is making my point.