There is a HUGE factor omitted from all of these “excessive death” numbers which is the way that the “excessive death” numbers have been trending over the last decade in the US.
This year is decidedly NOT an aberration.
For the US, the Macrotrends site below estimates 8.88 deaths per 1,000 residents for 2020, which would be about 3 million deaths of all causes for Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 of this year. The chances of the “Coronavirus epidemic” pushing that figure noticeably up, in a way such that someone at a distant time or place glancing at a table of deaths for a long period would immediately notice, appears to now be zero. Though I am sure most people will still vaguely think it is a major threat of exactly that kind, owing to the pro-Panic side’s control of the media narrative.
On total deaths in the 2010’s in the US.
The low-period for deaths per capita in the US was 2008 to 2013 (rate: 8.12 to 8.16 range). Looking at deaths since then (2013 to 2019):
US Deaths per 1000 residents:
– 2013: 8.159
– 2014: 8.264
– 2015: 8.369
– 2016: 8.475
– 2017: 8.580
– 2018: 8.685
– 2019: 8.782
– 2020: (proj.) 8.880
US Census estimates for total resident population as of July 1 of each year (Census Table NST-EST 2019-01):
– 2013: 315,993,715
– 2014: 318,301,008
– 2015: 320,635,163
– 2016: 322,941,311
– 2017: 324,985,539
– 2018: 326,687,501
– 2019: 328,239,523
– 2020: 329,877,505
Multiplying the two we get an interesting result.
TOTAL DEATHS in the US:
– 2013 total deaths: 2,578,000
– 2014 total deaths: 2,630,500
– 2015 total deaths: 2,683,500
– 2016 total deaths: 2,737,000
– 2017 total deaths: 2,788,500
– 2018 total deaths: 2,837,000
– 2019 total deaths: 2,882,500
– 2020 total deaths (proj.): 2,929,500
Notice the substantial increase each year, absent any named, attention-getting, Panic-creating flu-virus event through the 2010s (some bad flu-strains existed but no one noticed/cared). 2019 had +146,000 more total deaths than 2016, for example, and even +304,500 (!) over 2013.
2020 was projected to have even more, +351,000 deaths over 2013, an estimate made before anyone knew about Coronavirus.
The basic mechanisms for these big-looking increases is no mystery, and nothing to panic about (of course):
- Aging population plus higher base population. Plus, some on the margins is due to the well-documented rise in so-called deaths of despair in Middle America, which includes drug-deaths; this part of the increase we SHOULD worry about, as certainly it is much more harmful than the current flu-virus pandemic, by any half-way objective measure. But about the rise of deaths of despair we hardly hear at all. No emergency measures, no martial law, hardly even any attention. Why?
Needless to say, the observed increase in deaths since 2013 far more than covers (exceeds) the total of number of deaths attributable to the 2020 coronavirus. The CoronaPanic-pushers of 2020 either do not know or don’t care about this. It qualifies as “Context,” which is a heresy to Corona True Believers.
(U.S. Death Rate 1950-2020)