(Originally posted Oct 21, 2010)
This is Dennis Prager noting that there are only two economic models. And the two-parties (at least their base) exemplify and push them to varying degrees of success in our two-party system. This audio or video is either recovered from an old Vimeo account or my MRCTV account, and in fact may be quite dated (old). I will have more info shortly but this dates from 2010.
See also another FLASHBACK, “More Businesses Leave California (2012 Flashback)”
(I am changing some of my “Pages” to “Posts,” so some of this info is older to my site)
I was in a conversation with a younger person when they said that Fox News was biased. I mentioned that when you remove the “opinion pages” from Fox, they are slightly biased to the right… as much as CNN (once their “opinion pages” are removed) is biased to the left.
No kidding, twice they mentioned Sean Hannity, and I pointed out these were the opinion pages… then they f-i-n-a-l-l-y started tracking with me. I then mentioned that what they said is like someone coming up to me and telling me “the New York Times opinion pages lean left.” Or, “the Wall Street journal opinion pages lean right.” …
Fox News: Enraging Liberals for 10 Years (L.A. Times):
….What explains all this hysteria? Success, of course.
The propaganda charge is unfair, at least when it comes to the network’s presentation of news. In the 2004 presidential race, Fox pollsters consistently underestimated President Bush’s support. In its final preelection poll, Fox had Kerry winning by a couple of points, one of the only polls to show the Democrat on top. I’m not sure a right-wing fifth column would do that.
A recent comprehensive study by UCLA political scientist Tim Groseclose and University of Missouri-Columbia economics professor Jeffrey Milyo found Brit Hume’s “Special Report” — Fox’s most straightforward news show — more centrist than any of the three major networks’ evening newscasts, all of which leaned left.
The program is a model of smart news television….
Book: Liberal Media Distorts News Bias: Drudge, Fox look more conservative against mainstream’s liberal bent (US News and World Report):
…In a crushing body blow to the pushers of the so-called “Fox Effect,” which claims the conservative media is dragging the left into the center, UCLA political science professor Tim Groseclose in Left Turn claims that “all” mainstream news outlets have a liberal bias in their reporting that makes even moderate organizations appear out of the mainstream and decidedly right-wing to news consumers who are influenced by the slant. [Read Fox’s Huckabee slams MSNBC’s Matthews, Scarborough over bias.]
“Fox News is clearly more conservative than ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and National Public Radio. Some will conclude that ‘therefore, this means that Fox News has a conservative bias,'” he writes in an advance copy provided to Washington Whispers. “Instead, maybe it is centrist, and possibly even left-leaning, while all the others are far left. It’s like concluding that six-three is short just because it is short compared to professional basketball players.”
What’s more, he says, “this point illustrates a common misconception about the Drudge Report. According to my analysis, the Drudge Report is approximately the most fair, balanced, and centrist news outlet in the United States. Yet, the overwhelming majority of media commentators claim that it has a conservative bias. The problem, I believe, is that such commentators mistake relative bias for absolute bias. Yes, the Drudge Report is more conservative than the average U.S. news outlet. But it is a logical mistake to use that to infer that it is based on an absolute scale.”
And in further analysis sure to enrage critics of conservative media, Groseclose determines that Drudge, on a conservative to liberal scale of 0-100, with 50 being centrist, actually leans a bit left of center with a score of 60.4. The reason: Drudge mostly links to the sites of the mainstream media, with just a few written by Matt Drudge himself. “Since these links come from a broad mix of media outlets, and since the news in general is left-leaning, it should not be surprising that the slant quotient of the Drudge Report leans left,” he writes. [Read Poll: Fox, O’Reilly most trusted news sources.]…
(SEE PDF and FREAKONOMICS article)
At the 2:37 mark of the above video, there is a distinction made between news versus opinion shows on Fox. When I defend the “fair-and-balanced” aspect of Fox News it is the equal number of left/right guests on shows dealing more with raw news. (See UNCOMMON KNOWLEDGE)
A recent addition to the information found here-in comes from two peer-reviewed studies via Wintery Knight in a post entitled: Two Peer-Reviewed Studies Shed Light On News Media Bias
Here’s a UCLA study on media bias. Excerpt:
Of the 20 major media outlets studied, 18 scored left of center, with CBS’ “Evening News,” The New York Times and the Los Angeles Times ranking second, third and fourth most liberal behind the news pages of The Wall Street Journal.
Only Fox News’ “Special Report With Brit Hume” and The Washington Times scored right of the average U.S. voter.
The most centrist outlet proved to be the “NewsHour With Jim Lehrer.” CNN’s “NewsNight With Aaron Brown” and ABC’s “Good Morning America” were a close second and third.
“Our estimates for these outlets, we feel, give particular credibility to our efforts, as three of the four moderators for the 2004 presidential and vice-presidential debates came from these three news outlets — Jim Lehrer, Charlie Gibson and Gwen Ifill,” Groseclose said. “If these newscasters weren’t centrist, staffers for one of the campaign teams would have objected and insisted on other moderators.”
The fourth most centrist outlet was “Special Report With Brit Hume” on Fox News, which often is cited by liberals as an egregious example of a right-wing outlet. While this news program proved to be right of center, the study found ABC’s “World News Tonight” and NBC’s “Nightly News” to be left of center. All three outlets were approximately equidistant from the center, the report found….
Here’s a Harvard University study on media bias. Excerpt:
The programming studied on Fox News offered a somewhat more positive picture… of Republicans and more negative one of Democrats compared with other media outlets. Fox News stories about a Republican candidate were most likely to be neutral (47%), with the remainder more positive than negative (32% vs. 21% negative). The bulk of that positive coverage went to Giuliani (44% positive), while McCain still suffered from unflattering coverage (20% positive vs. 35% negative).
When it came to Democratic candidates, the picture was more negative. Again, neutral stories had a slight edge (39%), followed by 37% negative and 24% positive. And, in marked contrast from the rest of the media, coverage of Obama was twice as negative as positive: 32% negative vs. 16% positive and 52% neutral.
But any sense here that the news channel was uniformly positive about Republicans or negative about Democrats is not manifest in the data.”….
Much more can be found at Wintery Knight’s post on the matter. ESPECIALLY the end that includes this:
Here is a Pew Study that makes the same point:
Pew Study Finds MSNBC the Most Opinionated Cable News Channel By Far
A full 85% of the Comcast-owned network’s coverage can be classified as opinion or commentary rather than straight news, according to the authors of the Pew Research Center’s annual State of the News Media report.
CNN and Fox News Channel, meanwhile, fall much closer to a 50/50 distribution, with Fox News skewing somewhat more heavily toward opinion. Here are the breakdowns
When professor Groseclose and other people rate and discuss the left/right bias… they are looking at the news reporting — NOT shows like Sean Hannity. And this fairness is why more Democrats trust Fox News than other cable networks.
Democrats and Independents Agree!
Most Americans perceive partiality in the news media and more believe Fox News is the most trusted for accurate reporting among the major television news organizations, according to a recent poll by the Robert Morris University Polling Institute.
The poll surveyed 1,004 people nationwide with proportional contributions from each state via an online survey held May 6-13. Of those surveyed, 31.8 percent identified themselves as Democrats and 25.7 percent as Republicans.
When asked which television news stations they considered biased, 37.1 percent said MSNBC and 36.6 percent said CNN. Fox News was first with 47.8 percent.
However, Fox News was also considered the most honest network: 18.4 percent of respondents said it was the most trustworthy. MSNBC was the least-trusted network, clocking in at 4.4 percent, and CNN was declared trustworthy by 14.1 percent of respondents….
Robert Morris University Polling Institute Powered by Trib Total Media (2014)
According to a recent poll, likely voters get their political news primarily from cable television. Among cable channels, 42 percent, a plurality, watch Fox News for its political coverage. Only 12 percent said they watched MSNBC. What’s more, most likely voters don’t like or have never heard of MSNBC’s prime time talent.
The poll, conducted by Politico and George Washington University, used a sample split evenly between political parties – even slightly favoring Democrats in some areas: 41 percent of respondents identified as Republicans, while 42 percent said they were Democrats. Forty-four percent said they usually vote for Republicans, while 46 percent answered Democrats. Forty-eight percent voted for Obama, while only 45 percent voted for McCain.
Even among this group, Fox News is by far the most popular cable outlet. CNN comes in at second, with 30 percent. A sorry MSNBC brings up the rear…
Politico and George Washington University (2010) (via NewsBusters)
(The graphic is from Pew Poll [2008])
So, Democrats and Independents trust and watch Fox more — or at more of an even split — than they do most other networks (not all) . I only post this here to make a point that I am challenged with often about… so to reference this one post. (The above and below graphics come from some Fox having the best election coverage, HERE.)
(Link in Pic)
UPDATED via Politico:
Democrats love to cast Republicans as the party of big money, beholden to the out-of-touch billionaires bankrolling their campaigns.
But new numbers tell a very different story — one in which Democrats are actually raising more big money than their adversaries.
Among the groups reporting the biggest political ad spending, the 15 top Democrat-aligned committees have outraised the 15 top Republican ones $453 million to $289 million in the 2014 cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis of the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, including those filed over the weekend — which cover through the end of last month.
The analysis shows the fundraising edge widening in August, when the Democratic groups pulled in more than twice as much as their GOP counterparts — $51 million to $21 million. That’s thanks to a spike in massive checks from increasingly energized labor unions and liberal billionaires like Tom Steyer and Fred Eychaner.
So, even as Democrats like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are working methodically to turn conservative megadonors like the big-giving conservative billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch into the boogeymen of 2014, the party itself is increasingly relying on its deepest pockets as the best chance of staving off a midterm wipeout forecast by oddsmakers.
For example, Steyer, a retired San Francisco hedge fund billionaire, on Aug. 15 stroked a $15 million check to his own NextGen Climate Action super PAC that single-handedly exceeded the combined monthly total raised by the two GOP congressional campaign committees. And his political lieutenant, Chris Lehane, hinted that Steyer, one of the biggest individual donors of 2014, may give more to his super PAC than his $50 million pledge, which Lehane said “should not be seen as a ceiling.” Steyer’s spending — and that of other Democratic billionaires — has helped fuel an advertising gap favoring the party’s candidates in key races across the country….
More info at FEC linked in graph at top. See also NewsMax.
(Above) MSNBC Can’t Think of Any Possible ‘Good News’ for Progressives Tonight
The above graphic will change… the race in Alaska will be called for the Republican in the race, this from the Alaskan Dispatch: “With results from all 441 precincts counted, Sullivan led 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin remained essentially the same from the first returns early in the evening.”
In December you will have a runoff in Louisiana… in which even CNN says will be a Republican win. (The Democrat lost with T W O Republicans running against her!)
So the number for the Senate will be a plus-nine.
PBS notes that the “wealthiest Americans have spent more money than ever before on these midterms, but there are actually fewer big donors. The top five donors to unrestricted super PACs reads like a billionaire boys club.”
The top-five out of the ten are donating to Democrat “causes.” What is the lesson here? Money doesn’t matter! Here is the NYT’s assessment of outside groups:
…Outside groups working on behalf of Democratic candidates have extended the advantage. Super PACs, environmental organizations and abortion rights groups have spent more than $4.8 million on ground activity in Senate races in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina. Republican-leaning groups have kicked in only $369,000…
This H U G E win adds to the historic wins in 2010: “Michael Medved goes over just how HUGE this victory was for the Republicans on Nov 2, 2010.”
For example, here are a couple news headlines from this 2014 race:
Here is more from Libertarian Republican:
The Republicans have scored one of the largest victories in political history:
(1) Winning control of the Senate by adding eight seats (AK, AR, CO, IA, MT, NC, SD and WV), with LA sure to be added.
Already there are indications that Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia will switch over to the Republican Party, and that Senator Angus King of Maine, an independent, will caucus with the Republicans. Were they to do so, the Republicans would have the largest number of Senators in their caucus since the 70th Congress (1929-1930).
(2) Enlarging their majority in the House with a net gain of at 16, with two more to be added in Louisiana. This will be the largest number of Republican Congressmen since the 70th Congress (1929-1930). Among the incoming Republicans are two African Americans: Mike Hurd of Texas and Mia Love of Utah. Let’s grow this number.
(3) Adding to their already large majority of Governors, winning AR, IL, MA and MD, while losing AK and PA. This will bring the number of Republican Governors to 31.
(4) Winning control of at least five state legislative chambers (CO Senate, NM House, NV House and Senate, and WV House). I believe the Republicans now have control of the largest number of state legislative they have ever had. The Democrats are of course seeking to minimize their loses.
A President’s party tends to lose seats in the elections of his sixth year, they say. But the cumulative loses over six years of this President are unprecedented. The President blames the loses on the map. Yet, look at how geographically-dispersed are the states in which we have made gains, including among them some Blue States as well as Red and Purple States.
FLASHBACK 2009: James Carville Says Democrats Will Dominate Politics for Next Four Decades
And how is the Left taking all this? Gay Patriot points out the despair:
The Democrat Left is dealing with last night’s election results… badly.
“So The American Voters Have Rewarded The ReThugs For Shutting Down The Government….obstructing everything President Obama wanted to accomplish; sticking with the NRA; refusing to raise the minimum wage; refusing to deal with the immigration issue; piling more debt on students/student loans; voting to repeal ACA over 50 times when the American People finally had some relief on health insurance; and the list goes on and on. What is wrong with the American People. They believe the lies. They like to be lied to. They vote against their better interests.”
To hear the lamentations of their women:
“Tonight doesn’t make me wish I had quit smoking. An early death would be merciful compared to a long slow one with insufficient nutrition and no health care, which is what is coming up. I’m torn, can’t decide in which order to cry and vomit and get sick.”
Progressive Lesbian Sally Kohn is alternating between denial and despair. Will Saletan of Slate, OTOH, has firmly come down on the side of denial and insisting that… if you look at the elections a certain way, they are actually an endorsement of Obama’s left-wing policies.
Not to be outdone, a member of the DailyKos Lunatic Asylum demands that leftists must start outbreeding conservatives: [Language Warning]
All of us who are not genetically inclined to vote Republican must start breeding. Incessantly. Enthusiastically. Purposefully. Without pause. Dawn till dusk, fucking and having babies. Because that is the only way to increase our numbers relative to theirs. They cannot be convinced, reasoned with, shamed, embarrassed, educated, or informed. They are freeze-dried shit, and our counsels to them are as winter wind against frozen stone. Save your money – there isn’t enough money in the universe to spend them out of delusion. They must be out-bred, they must be outnumbered. They must become Neanderthal to our Cro-Magnon
Remember when Little Green Footballs used to be the anti-Kos blog? Then, they went full-on leftist and the two are now politically indistinguishable. This LGF election thread contains no fewer than 74 uses of the F-word in response to Republican victories.
Just a final example of a “by-county” count in Iowa;
I recently post on my FaceBook my “states in the red category” prediction in November (*not* the map above). One friend wrote that:
“I wish I could share your optimism”
Which is true, I am going big, granted. But the following is my small “booster” for the conservative at heart — even if it is fleeting:
I will give you some indicators… but mind you… I am going BIG and will most likely be wrong. But I am confident that we will win:
★ Flashback: Gallup Had Carter Up 4 Points Over Ronald Reagan in September 1980
http://tinyurl.com/9xwbr64
I was thinking it was only a 4% lead that Carter had… in fact, three weeks BEFORE the election Carter rose to 47% and Reagan dropped to 39%! Remember, Reagan took 44-States, he blew Carter out of the water! Then doc Rove shows the lopsided polls in regards to Democrats and Republicans. WOW!
★ Evidence that polls are skewed RIGHT NOW:
http://tinyurl.com/8hy6e56
★ Based upon economic indicators and other supporting data, the Bickers and Berry model has never missed a prediction since 1980.
http://tinyurl.com/9d9efgd
★ I have two stories on scads of Democrats becoming Republican (see both):
https://religiopoliticaltalk.com/tag/democrats-switching-parties/
★ We won 700 elected seats in 2012 — a record set (with switches to our party, way over 700):
https://vimeo.com/album/203863/video/16554880
★ Black Pastors Break With Obama On Gay Marriage
http://youtu.be/ELfFz3S5k-Q (see also: http://tinyurl.com/cao4l46)
★ Anti-Obama ‘2016’ Now Second Biggest Documentary in Film History (the “Michael Moore” effect)
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywood/2012/09/09/2016-second-biggest-doc
(Click above graphic to enlarge: h/t to Gay Patriot)
Some people see that “God” and “Jerusalem” (the Jewish vote) being re-added (wrongly I might add) is a BIG deal. So the black vote and the Jewish vote will change a bit. Others see the emphasis on abortion at the DNC this year (See for instance: http://tinyurl.com/8w7olch). It was pushed incessantly, and because of Akin, others have heard Obama’s voting record on infanticide. So the women vote will change. Still others note the odd line-up of speakers:
A man who was accused by 15-women of either unwanted sexual advances or rape, Bill Clinton (yeah, Republican war on women); A women who in one breath will say “keep government out of my bedroom,” but then in the next want government to pay for her contraception via acts in the bedroom… who also wants government to pay for sex-change operations, Sandra Fluke (radical genderist); A women caught lying about her ancestry and stories from it, Elizabeth Warren (Obama also falsely tied himself to Native-American ancestry); A racist involved deeply in what would be the White Pride movement if he were white… and has close ties to the Chicano version of the KKK, who’s mom founded both movements in her town (chapters of, so-to-speak), Julian Castro (for some reason Democrats think you cannot be racist if a minority, see: http://tinyurl.com/99ua58z).
So moderates and independents are going to vote a bit more for the RR2. These are just a few reasons to be optimistic… but maybe not as much as me.
The Magic Is Gone:
UPDATED:
A recent PEW POLL puts Romney (yes, Romney) up by 4-points. The Dem/Repub/Indie split was 39/29/30, respectively.
The most recent WaPo/ABC POLL has Obama up by 1-point Dem/Repub/Indie split is 35/26/33, respectively.
A poll from a month or so ago by CBS/NYT had Obama up and Democrats polled at 9% more. My boss came in one day and said Romney was down 10-points in Ohio… the Democrats were sampled at 35%, and Republicans at 27%. So while the race is close in swing-states, it IS close, and swaying to Romney.
So when Romney and the Left is surprised by it… you know why… they trust the Legacy Media.
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. ~ Weekly Standard
“Romney currently leads Obama 52 percent to 45 percent among voters who say they have already cast their ballots,” Gallup reported. “However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51 percent to 46 percent lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling.” ~ Gallup
Very early on, before this campaign started in earnest, live or die, I publicly cast my lot with Gallup and Rasmussen. As a poll addict going back to 2000, these are the outlets that have always played it straight. It’s got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with credibility and not wanting to kid myself. So when an outlet like Gallup tells me Romney is up seven-points, 52-45%, among those who have already voted, that’s very big news.
Just as Gallup did with their bombshell survey showing that 2012 is looking like a year where Republicans will enjoy a record three-point turnout advantage over Democrats (a ten-point shift from 2008), for whatever reason, they buried the lede with this latest bombshell, as well. When you consider the fact that the CorruptMedia’s been talking for weeks about how Obama’s crushing Romney in early voting, you would think Gallup proving that Narrative a big fat phony lie would be news. Instead, though, they bury this explosive news at the bottom of a piece headlined: “In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots“.
Sounds like a nothing story, right?
Except waaaaay at the bottom we learn this:
Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
When Gallup says early voters don’t seem to be swaying the election, presumably what they means is that because Romney is ahead by five points nationally, an early voting advantage of seven-points isn’t going to “sway the election.”
Romney’s early voting lead in Gallup may not jive with the CorruptMedia narrative, but it does with actual early vote totals that have been released and show Romney’s early vote totals either beating Obama in swing states such as Colorado and Florida or chipping away at the President’s advantage in the others. For example, here’s what we know about Ohio’s early voting numbers, thus far:
But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
RECENT POLLS BROKEN DOWN:
The Ohio poll (Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll) that has the 49% vs. the 49% close race, is a great example of what I have been talking about here-and-there about the disparity of proper representation of Party affiliates in these polls. For instance, in the poll used by many to show the tie, here is the breakdown:
★ The party breakdown of the randomly selected respondents: 47 percent Democrats, 44 percent Republicans, 10 percent independents.
We know that Independents are tracking more with the Republicans this year, about 54 percent (R/R) to 40 percent (O/B). And of course the difference is obvious in Democrat/Republican, as shown above. If there were a more even sampling between all three… Romney would be up, and by a few percentage points!
Likewise, the Minnesota poll that shows a statistical dead-heat is broke down thusly:
★ The poll comes as more Minnesotans identify as Republicans, which could add to Romney’s support. A month ago, the poll’s sample was 41 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican and 31 percent independent or other. In this survey, 38 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrat, 33 percent Republican and 29 percent independent or other.
NOW, the important part for my California readers. Yes, this state will go blue… but it is a duty for all Republicans to vote. Why? Because I believe that we will win this election, but a larger popular vote win will give R/R a moral high road for their agenda. The wider the gap the better.
[….]
Okay, the Gravis Marketing Poll (Ohio) which has Obama up 1 in Ohio ~ 50 Obama, 49 Romney… Dems are sampled 8% more (also remember Independents are going for Romney in larger numbers). Here is how the poll breaks down:
⚑ Democrat – 40
⚑ Republican – 32
⚑ Independent or in another party – 28
[….]
PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago. How does this newest poll break down?
⚑ Democrat – 43%
⚑ Republican – 35%
⚑ Independent/Other – 21%
[….]
Two new polls out that are nationwide averages (not specific state polls) are the Rasmussen poll and the Washington Post-ABC News Poll
The Washington Post-ABC News Poll has Romney at 49, Obama 48. Here is the break down:
⚑ Democrats sampled – 35%
⚑ Republican sampled – 28%
⚑ Independents sampled – 34%
Rasmussen has Romney at 49% and Obama at 47% — nation wide average. I can never find the in-depth breakdown… I think you have to be a paying member to do so. At any rate, here is one of their articles in part:
———————————————-
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Romney has now led for 11 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
Nationally, Romney remains at the 50% level of support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll….
————————————
Its all about the swing states!
(OHIO) Romney 50% ~ Obama 48%
The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.
And, from the Weekly Standard:
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent [Romney] to 45 percent [Obama].
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.
For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
This is a growing phenomenon! Previously I posted a story about 11 defections to the GOP.
In the past couple of weeks, at least 11 Democratic state legislators have switched sides — one in South Dakota, one in Maine, , one in Louisiana, two in Georgia, and four in Alabama. In Louisiana, the switch gives Republicans control of one house of the government for the first time since Reconstruction; in Alabama, the Republicans control both houses for the first time since 1874.
Read more: RPT Gains and Defections
Now this. Here is the first recent story from Libertarian Republican:
And then there’s this breaking news from the Statesman:
Democratic Rep. Aaron Peña of Edinburg hinted Saturday about making the switch to the GOP.
Reading between the lines, or more accurately the Tweats, leads one to the conclusion that it’s much more than a “hint.” From Peña who is on vacation outside of the State:
“Hard not to notice the stir back in Texas. Change is always difficult.”
The south Texas Rep. is described as one of the last remaining “conservative” Democrats, and is a close ally of Republican Speaker Joe Strauss.
Gateway Pundit has news on more Dem-to-GOP switches:
Texas Democrat Allan Ritter told associates he is switching parties next week. The move will give Republicans a super-majority in the Texas chamber.
Texas Tribune reported, via Free Republic:
State Rep. Allan Ritter, D-Nederland, is telling associates he will switch to the Republican Party next week. Ritter was not immediately available for comment.
That would give the GOP a 100-member supermajority in the Legislature’s lower chamber — a number that allows them to pass constitutional amendments and other matters without seeking support from the Democrats.
…(read more)…
This news comes from Libertarian Republican:
….From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “Two black Democrats bolt party for GOP”
Two African-American Democrats [Actually three] on Thursday announced that they were joining the Republican Party.
Hall County Commissioner Ashley Bell and former state executive committee member Andre Walker said the Democratic Party had grown too liberal and they are finding a new home with the Republicans.
Bell was introduced as a Republican at a news conference Thursday at party headquarters.
“My district is pretty Republican as it is,” Bell told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “My wife and I have been thinking about this for six months.”
[….]
Walker is publisher of the highly popular Georgia politica blog Georgia Unfiltered. The blog reports:
His wife, Lauren, who is also politically active, will join Ashley in the Republican Party.
Significantly, as the Gainseville Times points out, Lauren Bell was a Barack Obama delegate to the 2008 Democrat National Convention.
HotAir documents and important stat that I didn’t know about… WE ROCK in other words:
Of all the stories of the great Republican wave election of 2010, one of the stories that didn’t get wide play is just how dominant the GOP was in state elections. Republicans claimed a record 680 state legislative seats around the country, 52 more than the old record, set by Democrats in 1974 and 208 more than they picked up in the 1994 Gingrich Revolution. The right now controls both chambers of 26 state legislatures.
And the hits just keep coming. In the past couple of weeks, at least 11 Democratic state legislators have switched sides — one in South Dakota, one in Maine, , one in Louisiana, two in Georgia, and four in Alabama. In Louisiana, the switch gives Republicans control of one house of the government for the first time since Reconstruction; in Alabama, the Republicans control both houses for the first time since 1874.
The obvious reason these wins are important is that 44 states will start redrawing their Congressional districts next year. Many of the states in the South now controlled by Republicans will pick up House seats and few of them will be inclined to treat Democratic incumbents well. The lines drawn next year could help cement Republican control of the house not only in 2012 but perhaps for the next decade or more….
And from the Virtuous Republic (where the above graphic is from) breaks down said graphic:
Republicans have added over 675 seats to their ranks in this election, dramatically surpassing 1994 gains. This number could go even higher as the tallies in the undecided races are determined. The chamber switches thus far are all Democratic to Republican except for Montana House which was tied and is now Republican, and the Oregon House which was Democratic and is now tied. Changes are:
GOP gains:
Alabama – House and Senate
Colorado – House
Indiana – House
Iowa – House
Maine – House and Senate
Michigan – House
Minnesota – House and Senate
Montana – House
New Hampshire – House and Senate
North Carolina – House and Senate
Ohio – House
Pennsylvania – House
Wisconsin – Assembly and Senate
Tied: Oregon House; Alaska Senate
Three chambers still undecided: New York – Senate; Oregon – Senate; Washington – Senate
(click map at top of post to read more)
In this first video Dick Morris goes over the legislature control and gubernatorial leadership in about 20 states that Republicans are taking over control of in January. He explains one of the first glaring possibilities of change they will be confronted with and possibly try and truly change (let’s hope so):
Dennis Prager touches on just how much these unions (yes, teachers unions as well) are bankrupting the nation. He references an Economist magazine article that is also referenced in a previous post entitled, “500-Billion Unsecured California Pensions and growing; 3.2 Trillion Nationally” – below, Prager hits the nail on the head in his saying these are deals with the devil:
From The Hill “Dejected Dems wipe away tears”:
Freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), who lost her reelection bid, wiped away tears as she hugged fellow members of the class of 2008, many of whom lost on Nov. 2.
Less than three feet away, ousted Nevada freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D) appeared to brush away some tears in a less obvious manner.
Libertarian Republican has a story on my birth state and their choice to change direction:
The conservative blog Western Right has an excellent round-up of Michigan election results. They report on a little-noticed shift that is sure to have enormous consequences for the future of Michigan politics. The State Supreme Court now has a Republican majority 4 to 3. The infamous liberal-controlled Court for decades has shot down conservative/libertarian-backed measures such as tax cut initiatives, union-busting measures and most famously, the initiative to repeal Affirmative Action hiring and college admissions quotas.
Republicans in Michigan won a victory of epic proportions in the November election. They won everything. Well, almost every race that they seriously contested.
Bill Scheutte won the Attorney General race 52.6% to 43.5% over David Leyton.
Ruth Johnson won the Secretary of State race 50.7% to 45.2% over Jocelyn Benson.
Republicans have reclaimed a 4-3 majority on the court. This sets Young up to become the Chief Justice next year. This will also protect the rule of law against liberal activists and the market against greedy trial lawyers. It should also protect a Republican redistricting plan.
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