I noticed some of the viral videos by Drs. Daniel Erickson and Artin Massihi are being removed from YouTube. As it turns out, YouTube apparently are using the World Health Organizations proclamations as their guiding light to censor people free speech/thought. Here Laura Ingraham notes the issue:
Basically the Doctors in their original video (can be seen HERE, HERE, Channel 23 Bakersfield has it HERE, see also HERE) were basically saying it is time to open up California. The video has been removed from YouTube — hard to find. 23ABC BAKERSFIELD has the FULL video on their Facebook still:
Similarly, another doctor in the heart of the battle in New York says it is time to open back up, via the NEW YORK POST:
I’m an emergency physician at St. Barnabas Hospital in The Bronx. I have been in the ER every day these last few weeks, either supervising or providing direct care. I contracted a COVID-19 infection very early in the outbreak, as did two of my daughters, one of whom is a nurse. We are all well, thank God.
COVID-19 has been the worst health care disaster of my 30-year career, because of its intensity, duration and potential for lasting impact. The lasting impact is what worries me the most. And it’s why I now believe we should end the lockdown and rapidly get back to work.
It is precisely what I have witnessed that now tells me that it’s time to ease the lockdown. Here’s why.
First, the wave has crested. At 1 p.m. April 7, the COVID-19 arrivals slowed down. It was a discrete, noticeable event. Stretchers became available by 5 p.m., and the number of arriving COVID-19 patients dropped below the number discharged, transferred or deceased.
This was striking, because the community I serve is poor. Some are homeless. Most work in “essential,” low-paying jobs, where distancing isn’t easy. Nevertheless, the wave passed over us, peaked and subsided. The way this transpired tells me the ebb and flow had more to do with the natural course of the outbreak than it did with the lockdown.
Second, I worry about non-coronavirus care. While the inpatient units remain busy with sick COVID-19 patients, our ER has been quiet for more than a week. We usually average 240 patients a day. For the last week, we averaged fewer than 100. That means our patients in this diverse, low-income community are afraid to come to the ER for non-COVID care.
Gotham-wide, the number of 911 ambulance runs declined to 3,320 on April 18, down from a peak of 6,527 on March 30, according to New York Fire Department data. The current nadir is significantly below the average.
A large share of those staying home surely have emergency medical and surgical conditions not related to the novel coronavirus. The growing numbers dying at home during this crisis must include fatal myocardial infarctions, asthma exacerbations, bacterial infections and strokes.
Meanwhile, our pediatric volume in the ER has practically disappeared. Visits to primary-care pediatricians are also down, with vaccine schedules falling behind. Everyone seems to be avoiding the health system — an important and unfortunate consequence of the stay-at-home strategy.
Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.
Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.
More testing will better establish the numbers among those with mild illnesses and no symptoms. My professional experience tells me the number of infected people will be high. Testing is important work, but it should happen in parallel to the immediate resuscitation of the economy and getting people back to work.
At present, the testing is imperfect. We can’t wait months. We must protect the vulnerable and mitigate without destroying the economy…..
All of these doctors are in agreement that Covid-19 is serious. But they are also in agreement on two things, that is:
California is not New York;
The economy is an important monetary and healthy factor.
Armstrong & Getty discuss Brett Stephens New York Times article where it seems the rest of America is being asked to respond to The Rona just like New York City is. In an excellent article Brett notes:
As of Friday, there have been more Covid-19 fatalities on Long Island’s Nassau County (population 1.4 million) than in all of California (population 40 million). There have been more fatalities in Westchester County (989) than in Texas (611). The number of Covid deaths per 100,000 residents in New York City (132) is more than 16 times what is in America’s next largest city, Los Angeles (8). If New York City proper were a state, it would have suffered more fatalities than 41 other states combined… (NEW YORK TIMES)
The claim that New York is not responsible for the severe lockdowns we see across the country is the kind of revisionist history that we will all be drowned in over the coming weeks. Through late March and early April, Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci made clear time and again that their recommendations were based mostly on data from New York, where the most cases and testing existed.
Now there is a debunking of sorts making the rounds…
…the first I was made aware of it was by a friend in the health industry. He sent me a link to this statement by the The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM):
The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.
COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.
Then a couple other friends who disagree with a video by Drs. Daniel Erickson and Artin Massihi or just Dr. Erickson, noted both the above, and one was kind enough to post an article that specifically noted where the doctors “got it wrong.” And please do not get me wrong, I love friends that disagree with me. Why? Because it hones my knowledge of a topic. For instance, a friend posted this article from CALMATTERS “debunking” Dr. Erickson’s first video. But he wasn’t aware of another video that already responds to the charges he makes! I will post my shorter version of IT following the dialogue:
JIM G. In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.” [then he linked the CALMATTERS article]
After I noted my post on my site… JIM G. said:
the article points out the very basic methodological flaw. It’s flaw in their study is so elementary, it’s ridiculous.
Since I like to get people to commit to a premise they want to defend, I simply asked: “what flaw Jim”
JIM G. simple lack of random sampling and suggesting that their findings can be extrapolated to a larger population.
//… But public health experts were quick to debunk the doctors’ findings as misguided and riddled with statistical errors — and an example of the kind of misleading information they are forced to waste precious time disputing.
The doctors should never have assumed that the patients they tested — who came for walk-in COVID-19 tests or who sought urgent care for symptoms they experienced in the middle of a pandemic — are representative of the general population, said Dr. Carl Bergstrom, a University of Washington biologist who specializes in infectious disease modeling. He likened their extrapolations to “estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court.” And most credible studies of COVID-19 death rates in reality are far higher than the ones the doctors presented.//
ME JIM G. in this video he said it cannot be extrapolated to another population? (YOUTUBE), and they started to test everyone who asked?
This has to be the worst example of flaws since the Dr. refuted them even before he was rebuked? The only flaws I see have been the gargantuan numbers thrown around by the modelers themselves. California is no where near the deaths near the flu.
Likewise, another friend focused on the same issue. What was different however is that he posted under the previous video my other friend was not aware of. And may I say, I doubt this friend, JEREMY J, watched the video he commented under — just assuming it was the original video. Likewise though, the above video is great for his response as well:
JEREMY J. I recently posted this elsewhere.
For those of you who have watched the video of Bakersfield California doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, owners of Accelerated Urgent Care with multiple office locations including Kern County, you should know that their core message “Millions of cases, small amount of death” is based on very bad data analytics.
For most of the presentation, Dr. Erickson does most of the talking. When I use “they” or “their” please understand that I am usually referring to Dr. Erickson.
They took the number of tests they had done in their own clinics (5213) and the number of positive results they had from those tests (340, or 6.5%), and “extrapolated” (their words) that data to the entire state. That is how they arrived at 4.4 million Californians already infected.
But in order to extrapolate, you must be comparing similar groups. The group of people who have been tested is unlikely to have the same rate of infection as the general population, and there is no evidence offered that they do. The doctors simply assume that Californians as a whole would have positive tests at the same rate as symptomatic people who come in for testing. This is a basic failing on their part and by itself makes the claim “Millions of cases, small amount of death” invalid.
They then cite the California statewide numbers (280,900 tests, 33,865, or 12%). Based on these numbers, Dr. Erickson then says “so the more you test, the more positives you get, the prevalence number goes up, and the death rate stays the same, so it gets smaller and smaller and smaller.”
This is such confused thinking that it’s hard to know where to start, especially for an audience unversed in statistical and epidemiological terminology. OF COURSE you will get more positive results if you test more people, but that isn’t what he is trying to say. Dr. Erickson appears to be saying that if more tests are done, the *percent* of positive results goes up. That is magical thinking. It certainly isn’t science. More likely, the difference between their local numbers and the statewide numbers is a manifestation of either different testing criteria, or Kern County simply has fewer cases than California as a whole (infection rates would not be expected to be uniform across the state).
Far from being based on facts, data, and science, their core message that there are “Millions of cases, small amount of death” is based on assumption, conjecture, speculation, and magical thinking.
I’ve watched the entire hour long news conference. It is obvious to me that they do not understand some basic things about microbiology and immunology. They use “incidence” and “prevalence” interchangeably, even though they are very different concepts. They misunderstand the concept of “herd immunity”. And they tout their real world, on the ground experience as more valid than that of an academician, even though they haven’t worked in a hospital setting for several years and haven’t cared for seriously ill COVID-19 patients. Wise physicians understand that both perspectives are valid.
To be sure, they make some good points, and I think they are generally well intentioned. But their overall message is fundamentally weakened by some seriously sloppy data analysis as well as sloppy use of terms.
Note he makes it clear their intentions are good. That is nice, but these are my responses:
ME No, he says in the video you cannot extrapolate his work to the state. He says that specifically. But then notes another California study. And as they test this way (random testing), other states are finding the same issue.
Just as one example, at a homeless shelter in Boston, out of the nearly 400 guests tested, 146 tested positive for Covid-19… all were asymptomatic.
…the other study mentioned by Dr. Erickson was this one mentioned in theREASON.COMarticle. These studies are all proving my early work (mid to late March), which I speak about here:RPT
In a humorous short discussion via email with A CLEARER PICTURE, a neat play on the word Fascism was noted by him that I wish to highlight here. It is a simple joining of two words:
Dr. Fauci + fascism = Faucism
Here is his short prose using the term:
[That] Statement you sent me from College of Physicians is unbelievable. This is getting serious. Fauscism is as contemptuous of our rights to share information and make up our own minds as they are of our rights to earn a living and freely assemble.”
On my Facebook, a friend said this: “I posted this as well. These [doctors] absolutely nail it. I’m tellin’ y’all, I’m feelin’ the ‘1984’ thing right now!” What this will do and is doing is the false modeling and the covering up of tracks by saying on the death certificate’s of people told they have a month to live because of cancer… and then this breakout appears on the scene, and while they are in the hospital dying, they catch The Rona. Their death cert doesn’t say “died of cancer, it says “died of Covid-19.”
After reading A CLEARER PICTURE’S latest post about the censorship, I remembered it was Tuesday, and boogied on over toTOWNHALL.COMto see Prager’s latest column. Here is a large excerpt from it:
…“Police state” does not mean totalitarian state. America is not a totalitarian state; we still have many freedoms. In a totalitarian state, this article could not be legally published, and if it were illegally published, I would be imprisoned and/or executed. But we are presently living with all four of the key hallmarks of a police state:
No. 1: Draconian laws depriving citizens of elementary civil rights.
The federal, state, county and city governments are now restricting almost every freedom except those of travel and speech. Americans have been banned from going to work (and thereby earning a living), meeting in groups (both indoors and outdoors), meeting in their cars in church parking lots to pray and entering state-owned properties such as beaches and parks — among many other prohibitions.
No. 2: A mass media supportive of the state’s messaging and deprivation of rights.
The New York Times, CNN and every other mainstream mass medium — except Fox News, The Wall Street Journal (editorial and opinion pages only) and talk radio — have served the cause of state control over individual Americans’ lives just as Pravda served the Soviet government. In fact, there is almost no more dissent in The New York Times than there was in Pravda. And the Big Tech platforms are removing posts about the virus and potential treatments they deem “misinformation.”
No. 3: Use of police.
Police departments throughout America have agreed to enforce these laws and edicts with what can only be described as frightening alacrity. After hearing me describe police giving summonses to, or even arresting, people for playing baseball with their children on a beach, jogging alone without a mask, or worshipping on Easter while sitting isolated in their cars in a church parking lot, a police officer called my show. He explained that the police have no choice. They must respond to every dispatch they receive.
“And why are they dispatched to a person jogging on a beach or sitting alone in a park?” I asked.
Because the department was informed about these lawbreakers.
“And who told the police about these lawbreakers?” I asked.
His answer brings us to the fourth characteristic of a police state:
No. 4: Snitches.
How do the police dispatchers learn of lawbreakers such as families playing softball in a public park, lone joggers without face masks, etc.? From their fellow citizens snitching on them. The mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, set up a “snitch line,” whereby New Yorkers were told to send authorities photos of fellow New Yorkers violating any of the quarantine laws. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti similarly encouraged snitching, unabashedly using the term.
It is said that about 1 in every 100 East German citizens were informers for the Stasi, the East German secret police, as superbly portrayed in the film “The Lives of Others.” It would be interesting, and, I think, important, to know what percentage of New Yorkers informed on their fellow citizens. Now, again, you may think such a comparison is not morally valid, that de Blasio’s call to New Yorkers to serve a Stasi-like role was morally justified given the coronavirus pandemic. But you cannot deny it is Stasi-like or that, other than identifying spies during World War II, this is unprecedented in American history at anywhere near this level…..
This coincides with my post on a friends Facebook last night, where I said after mentioning the removal of Drs. Daniel Erickson and Artin Massihi video:
Certain books and videos removed from Amazon for not being politically-correct. Posts removed from Facebook for not marching in step. YouTube removing or “doxing” videos that they say do not meet their guidelines (just think of Prager U’s fight). Twitter, etc.
You know, many years ago I wrote the Koch Brothers and tried to get a letter to them (being big libertarians) about starting a server for people to compete with YouTube and other blog hosting sites. Because I know at some point hosting sites will limit my speech to fit the prevailing PC winds.
The owner of the blog “A Clearer Picture” mentioned to me the following after seeing the above statement: “[That] Statement you sent me from College of Physicians is unbelievable. This is getting serious. Fauscism is as contemptuous of our rights to share information and make up our own minds as they are of our rights to earn a living and freely assemble.”
“Fauscism” what a great “medical” play on words. (Based on Dr. Fauci)
And yes, giving up our rights to modelers and to the World Health Organization (scientism) is a form of FAUCISM. Speaking to one of the models that led to what should have been a two or three week shut down was this one noted at TOWNHALL.COM (on April 5th):
While the reporting data from some states are lagging, others have provided information that calls into question the validity of the whole model, and with it, all the actions taken by government.
On April 4th, for example, the IHME model predicted there would be between 120,963 and 203,436 Americans requiring hospitalization, with the average of that range being 164,745. In reality, there were 18,998…..
Sick, and because of the hatred for Trump from the Left and #NeverTrumpers… this is only the beginning of the emboldening of what they think they can do to us. As CNN and other’s say this is a trial run for:
The World Is Coming Together To Fight Coronavirus. It Can Do The Same For The Climate Crisis (CNN)
Coronavirus And Climate Change: The Pandemic Is A Fire Drill For Our Planet’S Future (NBC NEWS – BIG THINK)