Electoral Map

More Reasons To Be Excited About Super Tuesday

Published by Papa Giorgio

I just wanted to add some portion of a post I recently read to support the post of mine here, “One Day Of Biden Gaffes (Hugh Hewitt),” in which Kevin McCullough predicts Trump winning by 331 on the  Electoral Map. Here is AMERICAN THINKER’S article:

Two more hints [excerpts] that should make the optimist about 2020 happy.

….As things stand, Trump has a clear path to victory. But, in my humble opinion, it’s much more likely that Trump wins big than loses — even with “polls” showing Biden up by 15%.

I find that the data shows that Trump is likely keep all his 2016 states and win Minnesota and New Hampshire. Additionally, it is highly likely that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are in play. This could land him 35 states and an overwhelming victory in the popular vote. Here is why:  

  • Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That’s 10,000,000 votes!
  • Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
  • Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
  • Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
  • Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016. 

Any of these projections coming half-true would guarantee the President a victory. A combination would lead to a landslide.  

On the flip side, Democrats that lost in 2016 have struggled to grow their voter base in large part because they focus on marginal groups and those with low turnout. 

Democrat support for Antifa and defunding the police has alienated significant portions of key swing demographics like African Americans, Hispanics, union workers, and suburban women. Enthusiasm has been further dampened with the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Securing a 6-3 conservative majority for the next 20 years one week before the election will do that.

What is Joe Biden’s base? He has no base. That is why nobody shows up when he appears in public.

So, the map itself looks favorable for Trump despite what the mainstream media tells you……

The DAILY WIRE has an interesting post suggesting another “shotcaller” in 2016 that was one of the few that predicted Trump’s win. Here is a portion of that article:

….Most presidential pollsters blew the call in 2016.

But Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly got it mostly right. His group’s polling in 2016 showed Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of the election. Trump won all three, despite most polls saying he would lose the states.

Now, Cahaly says Trump is poised to do it again and will top the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win re-election.

“I see the president winning with a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said on Fox News.

“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what [we] refer to as the shy Trump voter,” he said. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment. And so, these people are more hesitant to … participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not trying to give them a poll that they can participate in … you’re not going to get honest answers.”

His hypothesis is supported by polls. A survey in July by Monmouth University of 401 Pennsylvania voters found that a majority of voters think there are Trump supporters out there who aren’t being counted.

“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%),” the pollsters wrote.

The Trafalgar group’s poll of 1,051 likely voters from Oct. 14-16 shows Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin by just over 1 percentage point, 47.5% to 46.3%. Other Trafalgar group polls show Trump ahead of Biden by 1 percentage point in Michigan, 2 points in Florida, and 4 points in both Arizona and Ohio, according to October surveys.…

I would hope to throw a little love in the faces of a FB rival’s confidence…

One Day Of Biden Gaffes (Hugh Hewitt)

Published by Papa Giorgio

As above/below:

I just wanted to share a couple posts about polls, the first is via POWERLINE:

It is an odd election season. Pretty much everyone thinks the Democrats are on their way to a crushing victory, yet it is hard to see why. A whopping 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago, and President Trump draws large, enthusiastic crowds wherever he goes. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is a pale shell of his formerly buffoonish self. When Joe is able to get out of bed, his campaign schedules intimate invitation-only events. Supposedly this is because of COVID, but everyone knows it is really because he doesn’t want to be embarrassed by his inability to draw a crowd. Probably no one outside of Biden’s immediate family particularly wants him to be president.

So what is going on? One possibility is that the conventional wisdom is wrong. At TOWNHALL, Kevin McCullough, who has a pretty good record as an election forecaster, argues that we should believe our lying eyes:

To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.

The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”

[….]

We can dream. Finally, here is McCullough’s predicted electoral map (the first graphic is his most updated prediction):

Not to pour cold water on a much-needed bit of optimism, but McCullough has Minnesota going for Trump. But it has been reported here that the Trump campaign has pulled all of its remaining television ads from Minnesota stations.

Still, we can dream.

Remember, Kevin McCullough called the map dead on in 2016. Okay, the next is from RED STATE

Mainstream media have been trumpeting a lot of the polls being for Joe Biden.

We’ve pointed out the problems of some of those polls and how there are the other polls, like the Democracy Institute poll, that find President Donald Trump ahead because they’re measuring likely voters not registered voters and they aren’t oversampling Democrats. Most are also not measuring things like the shy Trump voter or that the youth vote is again unlikely to come out in greater numbers.

But what’s missing in a lot of the discourse is that the measures apart from MSM national polls by which you judge whether a president will be reelected are all for Trump.

First there’s no indication of a youth voter surge, that’s bad for the Democrats who poll much higher with the young than other age groups.

As I already wrote about, Trump has a 51% approval rating from Zogby.

[….]

Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s reelected.

Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. A reporter asked Joe Biden about that, he got snippy and said that if people thought that they didn’t have to vote for him and that their memories were somehow wrong.

The important thing to note? How high that number is for Trump and that all the prior president in 2012, 2004, 1992, 1984 who even had lower numbers were reelected.

[….]

David Chapman did a great Twitter thread of some of the other historical measures.

From Townhall:

“[N]o incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”

Oh, and it gets better.

“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,”

This tallies with the Helmut Norpoth prediction model that cites the importance of the primary numbers and also predicts a Trump win. People came out in droves for Trump in the primary when they didn’t even have to.

Want more? There’s more.

Every candidate who has led in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won. Trump not only leads in voter enthusiasm, he leads by a lot, a 19 point enthusiasm gap….

(READ IT ALL)