Author: Papa Giorgio
By The Numbers ~ Digging in the Weeds of the Recent Much Touted Polls (Combined Posts from my FaceBook)
RECENT POLLS BROKEN DOWN:
The Ohio poll (Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll) that has the 49% vs. the 49% close race, is a great example of what I have been talking about here-and-there about the disparity of proper representation of Party affiliates in these polls. For instance, in the poll used by many to show the tie, here is the breakdown:
★ The party breakdown of the randomly selected respondents: 47 percent Democrats, 44 percent Republicans, 10 percent independents.
We know that Independents are tracking more with the Republicans this year, about 54 percent (R/R) to 40 percent (O/B). And of course the difference is obvious in Democrat/Republican, as shown above. If there were a more even sampling between all three… Romney would be up, and by a few percentage points!
Likewise, the Minnesota poll that shows a statistical dead-heat is broke down thusly:
★ The poll comes as more Minnesotans identify as Republicans, which could add to Romney’s support. A month ago, the poll’s sample was 41 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican and 31 percent independent or other. In this survey, 38 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrat, 33 percent Republican and 29 percent independent or other.
NOW, the important part for my California readers. Yes, this state will go blue… but it is a duty for all Republicans to vote. Why? Because I believe that we will win this election, but a larger popular vote win will give R/R a moral high road for their agenda. The wider the gap the better.
[….]
Okay, the Gravis Marketing Poll (Ohio) which has Obama up 1 in Ohio ~ 50 Obama, 49 Romney… Dems are sampled 8% more (also remember Independents are going for Romney in larger numbers). Here is how the poll breaks down:
⚑ Democrat – 40
⚑ Republican – 32
⚑ Independent or in another party – 28
[….]
PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago. How does this newest poll break down?
⚑ Democrat – 43%
⚑ Republican – 35%
⚑ Independent/Other – 21%
[….]
Two new polls out that are nationwide averages (not specific state polls) are the Rasmussen poll and the Washington Post-ABC News Poll
The Washington Post-ABC News Poll has Romney at 49, Obama 48. Here is the break down:
⚑ Democrats sampled – 35%
⚑ Republican sampled – 28%
⚑ Independents sampled – 34%
Rasmussen has Romney at 49% and Obama at 47% — nation wide average. I can never find the in-depth breakdown… I think you have to be a paying member to do so. At any rate, here is one of their articles in part:
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The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Romney has now led for 11 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
Nationally, Romney remains at the 50% level of support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll….
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Its all about the swing states!
(OHIO) Romney 50% ~ Obama 48%
The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.
And, from the Weekly Standard:
New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent [Romney] to 45 percent [Obama].
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.
For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
Andrew Sullivan Makes a Fool of Himself on ABC`s `This Week` ~ Checkmate by George Will
Dr. Angela McGaskill`s Statement About Bigotry (really Fascist tactics from the thirties: label and silence) in Higher Education
Dr. Angela McGaskill’s Press Conference October 16, 2012 about leftist fascist tactics in labeling and shutting down civil discourse and freedom of thought. Again, I am always reminded of Tammy Bruce’s book (she is a pro-choice lesbian — fyi) entitled: “The New Thought Police: Inside the Left’s Assault on Free Speech and Free Minds”
Some Speakers on Media Influence ~ Accuracy in Media
At the Accuracy in Media conference, “ObamaNation: A Day of Truth,” former congressman and Federal prosecutor Artur Davis had high praise for former President Ronald Reagan, saying that “Reagan took liberty and freedom, which are very imaginative concepts, and he gave them a power they had never had before.”
Davis is a four-term member of the House of Representatives from Alabama, where he represented the 7th District as a Democrat from 2003-2010. He was viewed as a rising star in the House, and named in 2008 by Esquire magazine as one of the “Ten Best Congressmen in America.” He was the first congressman to endorse Barack Obama for president, and even seconded his nomination in 2008. But he has since switched to the Republican Party, and even spoke at their convention in August. Davis is now a columnist and commentator across a wide media spectrum: He contributes to Politico and National Review, among others. He is a Current Fellow at Harvard’s prestigious Institute of Politics, and is an attorney in Washington, D.C.
In recent remarks to an AIM conference, “ObamaNation: A Day of Truth,” former Democratic pollster and analyst Pat Caddell said, “I think we’re at the most dangerous time in our political history in terms of the balance of power in the role that the media plays in whether or not we maintain a free democracy.” Caddell noted that while First Amendment protections were originally provided to the press so they would protect the liberty and freedom of the public from “organized governmental power,” they had clearly relinquished the role of impartial news providers.
Nowhere was this more evident than during the tragic death of a U.S. ambassador in Libya that was lied about for nine days, because the press and the administration did not want to admit it was a terrorist attack.
“We’ve had nine days of lies over what happened because they can’t dare say it’s a terrorist attack, and the press won’t push this,” said Caddell. “Yesterday there was not a single piece in The New York Times over the question of Libya. Twenty American embassies, yesterday, are under attack. None of that is on the national news. None of it is being pressed in the papers.”
Caddell added that it is one thing for the news to have a biased view, but “It is another thing to specifically decide that you will not tell the American people information they have a right to know.”
At the AIM conference in September, “ObamaNation: A Day of Truth, Richard Benedetto gave a speech titled “How the Media are Impacting the Election”.
Benedetto is a former White House correspondent, USA TODAY, political columnist, and adjunct professor at American University.
“If you’ve got a cause, go to work for the cause; don’t go to work in the newspaper business.”
Obama Caught In a Really Serious Lie
Via Gateway Pundit:
Obama Fiddled While Benghazi Burned–
Earlier today Barack Obama told Denver’s WUSA TV this in regard to the Benghazi 9-11 terror attack,
“I gave three very clear directives. Number one, make sure that we are securing our personnel and doing whatever we need to. Number two, we’re going to investigate exactly what happened to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Number three, find out who did this so we can bring them to justice.”
Tonight however, Bing West, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense, told Greta Van Susteren,
“If that actually happened the way President Obama said it happened, there’s a paper trail and I think people reasonably enough can say, “Can we see the order?” because hundreds of others supposedly saw this order.
Obama just got caught. He lied about his securing our personnel in Benghazi. And now the world will know about it. There was no order to protect our men on the ground.
Media Mash on Chris Matthews Being an `Unmitigated Liar`
At this point in the campaign, most liberal journalists are panicked, but MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, well, he’s just “delusional,” NewsBusters publisher Brent Bozell noted on the Thursday edition of Fox News Channel’s Hannity. The Media Research Center founder was reacting to a montage that a) showed the Hardball host bullying a college student, insisting that the “Innocents of Muslims” video was the real spark of the deadly Benghazi attack and b) showed Matthews complaining that conservatives are more interested in turning Obama out of office than destroying al Qaeda, and that that was out of racial animus.
Matthews was being “clearly, clearly dishonest” since he most certainly “knows [the Benghazi attack was] not about a video.” As to Matthews’s charge about conservatives hating Obama more than al Qaeda
Serious Saturday ~ Richard Swinburne Lectures on `Implausibility of Physical Determinism` To the Student Body at Biola (Q&A Included)
A Delta Force Unit Was 2-hours Away, Spectre Gunships Closer, CIA and Pentagon Denied Assistance and Against Orders These Heroes Went In! ~ UPDATED
Bret Baier Shows Frustration We All Feel about Ambassador Stevens and Benghazi
Anti-Catholic, Anti-Semitic, Homophobic Cult Leader is Big Donor to Democrats
Video Description:
Democratic donor J.Z. Knight, the leader of a cult based out of Washington State made vicious remarks about Catholics, Jews, and homosexuals that surfaced this week. Knight gave over $60,000 to both President Obama’s re-election campaign and the Democratic National Committee. Knight has even had her picture taken with President Obama. Despite the controversy, Democrats have refused to give back the donations they received from Knight.
Scarborough Clashes With New Yorker Editor Over Mag`s Bush-Bashing Obama Endorsement
Video Description:
Joe Scarborough and New Yorker editor David Remnick clash over the New Yorker’s endorsement of Barack Obama, in which the magazine writes of Obama helping to relieve the “national shame inflicted by the Bush administration.”