Stats/Polls

By The Numbers ~ Digging in the Weeds of the Recent Much Touted Polls (Combined Posts from my FaceBook)

Published by Papa Giorgio

RECENT POLLS BROKEN DOWN:

The Ohio poll (Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll) that has the 49% vs. the 49% close race, is a great example of what I have been talking about here-and-there about the disparity of proper representation of Party affiliates in these polls. For instance, in the poll used by many to show the tie, here is the breakdown:

★ The party breakdown of the randomly selected respondents: 47 percent Democrats, 44 percent Republicans, 10 percent independents.

We know that Independents are tracking more with the Republicans this year, about 54 percent (R/R) to 40 percent (O/B). And of course the difference is obvious in Democrat/Republican, as shown above. If there were a more even sampling between all three… Romney would be up, and by a few percentage points!

Likewise, the Minnesota poll that shows a statistical dead-heat is broke down thusly:

★ The poll comes as more Minnesotans identify as Republicans, which could add to Romney’s support. A month ago, the poll’s sample was 41 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican and 31 percent independent or other. In this survey, 38 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrat, 33 percent Republican and 29 percent independent or other.

NOW, the important part for my California readers. Yes, this state will go blue… but it is a duty for all Republicans to vote. Why? Because I believe that we will win this election, but a larger popular vote win will give R/R a moral high road for their agenda. The wider the gap the better.

[….]

Okay, the Gravis Marketing Poll (Ohio) which has Obama up 1 in Ohio ~ 50 Obama, 49 Romney… Dems are sampled 8% more (also remember Independents are going for Romney in larger numbers). Here is how the poll breaks down:

⚑ Democrat – 40
⚑ Republican – 32
⚑ Independent or in another party – 28

[….]

PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago. How does this newest poll break down?

⚑ Democrat – 43%
⚑ Republican – 35%
⚑ Independent/Other – 21%

[….]

Two new polls out that are nationwide averages (not specific state polls) are the Rasmussen poll and the Washington Post-ABC News Poll

The Washington Post-ABC News Poll has Romney at 49, Obama 48. Here is the break down:

⚑ Democrats sampled – 35%
⚑ Republican sampled – 28%
⚑ Independents sampled – 34%

Rasmussen has Romney at 49% and Obama at 47% — nation wide average. I can never find the in-depth breakdown… I think you have to be a paying member to do so. At any rate, here is one of their articles in part:

———————————————-

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Romney has now led for 11 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Nationally, Romney remains at the 50% level of support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll….

(http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll)

————————————

Its all about the swing states!

(OHIO) Romney 50% ~ Obama 48%

The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided. 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

And, from the Weekly Standard:

New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent [Romney] to 45 percent [Obama].

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”

The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.

Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.

For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

Mitt Romney Storms Into The Lead Over Obama

Published by Papa Giorgio

Business Insider zeroes in on this LARGE jump

In a shocking one-month swing, Mitt Romney stormed into the lead over President Barack Obama in a new  Pew Research poll conducted after Romney’s consensus victory in the first presidential debate.

The poll finds a 12-point swing among likely voters. In Pew’s last poll, conducted in the middle of September, Obama led Romney 51-43 among likely voters. Now, Romney leads 49-45. 

The shift is due to Romney shoring up key areas of strength among likely voters and improving his overall image, much of which can be attributed to his strong debate performance. Sixty-six percent of voters thought Romney won the debate, compared with just 20 percent who said Obama won. Among Independents, Romney won by an astounding 78-14 margin.

…read more…

Business Insider notes as well Andrew Sullivan’s despair:

Daily Beast blogger Andrew Sullivan is not happy about the latest Pew Research poll, which shows Republican presidential candidate surging 12 points to hold a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over President Barack Obama. 

Here’s what Sullivan had to say about the poll: 

“The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall?”

He continues: 

“Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good. That’s terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion. He still has some personal advantages over Romney – even though they are all much diminished. Obama still has an edge on Medicare, scores much higher on relating to ordinary people, is ahead on foreign policy, and on being moderate, consistent and honest (only 14 percent of swing voters believe Romney is honest). But on the core issues of the economy and the deficit, Romney is now kicking the president’s ass.” 

He ends: 

“I’ve never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before. Gore was better in his first debate – and he threw a solid lead into the trash that night. Even Bush was better in 1984 than Obama last week. Even Reagan’s meandering mess in 1984 was better – and he had approaching Alzheimer’s to blame.”

Sullivan, a moderate conservative-turned-Obama fan, was one of the harshest critics of the President’s debate performance last week, and the Pew numbers bear out his doomsday take on Obama’s onstage collapse. 

…read more…

Survey: `55% of physicians reported they would vote for Romney while just 36% support Obama`

Published by Papa Giorgio

The America’s Medical Society mentions that some questioning should happen at the debates:

Mr. President, please explain how you plan to maintain the same level of  medical acuity and acumen, when, within a mere two years, there will be tens of  millions of additional patients added to waiting rooms nationally?

They continue,

The President should have a prepared answer to this key concern of healthcare  providers and patients. It’s inconceivable that any question could be more  primary to the intrinsic workings of our health systems in the United States.  With all other concerns aside, nothing really matters if there are not properly  trained physicians available to evaluate and treat the added influx of thirty  million new patients.

Let’s assume that the polls are wrong, and that anywhere from thirty to  sixty-five percent of practicing doctors will not, indeed, cut back their hours or retire early in the next decade. Let’s answer this question then, honestly,  for the President in a stand-alone textbook-style essay response. There is  really only one–albeit vague and evasive–answer that the President can  give:

“…We will rely on ancillary healthcare personnel [non-physicians: nurses,  technicians, physician’s assistants] to step up and do more of the supporting  work now done by doctors.”

This is the answer that Mr. Obama’s handlers have likely prepared for him.  There is only one problem, however, with this answer: it is disingenuous and  factually incomplete.

First of all, the President’s men know very well that the decades-old slow  decline in inflation-adjusted income of physicians has already squeezed every  ounce of efficiency out of non-physician helpers in the workforce. There is no  way these ‘non-M.D.s’ can be asked to simply ‘give more’ without sacrificing  quality.

What will really happen in Obama’s new world medical order is that  non-physicians will be charged with higher levels of functioning in patient  care—assessment, treatment, and even prescription-writing, as more nurse  practitioners and (state law depending) others are required to practice medicine  without the benefit of a medical training and degree. Essentially, some will be  given the equivalent of a medical degree through legislative and executive fiat.  In other words, time-honored requirements and benchmarks for medical training  will be lowered.

…read more…

Obama-Care, however, is already crumbling and has two more times to visit the Supreme Court (HHS and the “Exchanges” between states). Here is one state that took the law into their own hands, as Walter William would say, Constitutionally:

Missouri voters dealt Obamacare a significant setback yesterday, approving a statewide ballot measure with an overwhelming 71 percent of the vote.

The vote was the first time citizens had an opportunity to cast a ballot on the unpopular health care law. Missouri’s measure prohibits the federal government’s enforcement of the individual mandate to buy health insurance. The victory sends a strong message about Obamacare in a bellwether state.

…read more…

A recent survey from the the third largest health care staffing company in the United States shows that most doctors are for either “repeal and replace” or “implement and improve.” These feelings work out towards the candidates in the following way:

A new survey shows Mitt Romney with a commanding lead over President Barack Obama among doctors, with Obamacare helping to sway their votes.

If the election were held today, 55 percent of physicians reported they would vote for Romney while just 36 percent support Obama, according to a survey released by Jackson & Coker, a division of Jackson Healthcare, the third largest health care staffing company in the United States

Fifteen percent of respondents said they were switching their vote from Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012. The top reasons cited for this change was the Affordable Care Act and the failure to address tort reform.

Leadership style, failure to follow through on campaign promises, unemployment and the general state of the economy were also factors.

“Doctors are highly motivated this year to have their voice heard, particularly after passage of the Affordable Care Act,” said Sandy Garrett, president of Jackson & Coker. “No doubt, the health care law has stirred many passions in the medical community.”

Fifty-five percent of physicians said that they favored “repeal and replace” Obamacare, while 40 percent said “implement and improve”.

A Gallup poll from July found that 46 percent of Americans feel Obamacare is more harmful than helpful to the economy; 36 percent responded the opposite.

…read more…

Romney Up In Ohio!?

Published by Papa Giorgio

Libertarian Republican has a good post showing that multiple polls actually has Romney up in Ohio:

In Ohio, the RealClearPolitics average of the public polls currently favors Obama by 6 points. Supposedly, Obama is going to win this state by a wider margin than he did four years, when he won the state by 5 points….

NOT!

…Based on my average of thirteen polls conducted during the prior thirty days in Ohio, I have Romney currently ahead by 2.2 points, 47.6 to 45.3, with the remainder undecided or in favor of a third-party candidates.

…read more…

The Coach is Right has this astounding post that also shows their is some fuzzy math going on in the legacy media:

Media fraudulent pollsters you’ve been busted. Your fake numbers have been exposed by two very unlikely and probably unwilling sources. Last Friday the Leftist cheer leaders at the Third Way “think tank” made what had to be a very sad announcement for them. They told the world their researchers had found Democrat registration has fallen by 490,000 in just Ohio alone and without going into finer numbers had also declined by significant numbers in other important states. Florida Democrat registration is down 4.9% Iowa Democrats have lost 9.5% and remember that “thisclose” swing state of New Hampshire, the one that flipped its entire government just two years ago – Democrat registration is down 19.7%! More than this Third Way also found Republican registration was down only a 10th of the Democrat decline and that Independents (who favor Mitt Romney by 14 points) had grown in numbers.

The full story from Ohio must be chilling for Democrats because 44% of these Democrat registration drops come from the Cleveland (Cuyahoga County) area cutting deeply into their lead over local Republicans. Hamilton and Franklin counties, both huge Democrat strongholds have seen steep declines in the number of registered Democrats as well. The combined decline of all three counties accounts for about 79% of the now “missing” Ohio Democrats.

[…]

The second blow to the false polls we constantly see is the just released Gallup report showing Republicans 16% (64/48) more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are. Remember these numbers when you read the next fraudulent poll. Added to the sharp drop in Democrat registration they prove Barack Obama is on his way to a landslide defeat next month.

…read more…

And the Daily Caller is reporting that an internal Ohio Romney memo says the state is up for grabs.

Polls Lie ~ Sorta: You Have To Dig To Find Poll Information (Are Republicans Really Down 10% In Ohio?)

Published by Papa Giorgio

Misleading Stats ~ You Have To Dig To Find the Real Stats!

A good example of this is the recent poll my boss came in and disparagingly said “Romney’s down 10% in Ohio.” I waited till I got home and found out that the poll sampled Democrats at 35%, and Republicans at 27%. So while the race is close however, Obama is not leading by 10% — which is why it is categorized as a swing state.

See also:

★ More Fuzzy Math from the Polls: http://tinyurl.com/9df4a99
★ Karl Rove Explains the 1980 Polls Regarding the Carter/Reagan Race (3-weeks before the Election, Carter was at 47%, Reagan at 39% ~ Reagan won 44-states): http://tinyurl.com/925t9uh


More Fuzzy Math from the Polls

Published by Papa Giorgio

Via Breitbart:

A Marist Poll on Thursday found President Barack Obama with an astounding eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in Iowa, even as the RealClearPolitics average had the state tied and a Rasmussen Reports poll on Thursday found Romney leading by three points. 

Marist says the breakdown of likely voters in its poll Iowa is 36% Democrat, 31% Republican, and 33% independent. Democrats only had a one-point advantage in 2008, when enthusiasm for Obama was at its peak. 

But when among those 33% who are independent are broken down even further, 12% leaned Democrat and 10% leaned Republican, giving Democrats a two-point advantage among independents Marist polled. This means Democrats actually have a seven-point advantage in the poll. 

In 2008, Democrats only had a one-point advantage over Republicans on election night in Iowa. Democrats made up 34% of Iowans who voted in the presidential election in 2008. Republicans made up 33%. Independents made up 33%. …

[…]

The Marist poll found forty-nine percent of Iowans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction while 43% thought the country was headed in the right direction. This means Obama is in trouble if Democrats don’t give him a seven-point advantage over Republicans at the polls in November, which seems highly unlikely.

 

Karl Rove Explains the 1980 Polls Regarding the Carter/Reagan Race

Published by Papa Giorgio

From video description:

I was thinking it was only a 4% lead that Carter had… in fact, three weeks BEFORE the election Carter rose to 47% and Reagan dropped to 39%! (Posted by: Religio-Political Talk) Remember, Reagan took 44-States, he blew Carter out of the water! Then doc Rove shows the lopsided polls in regards to Democrats and Republicans. WOW!